Monday, September 17, 2007

We're back

Let the division previews begin. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish, and before we start, here’s a rundown of the Sports With Steve schedule. Today, Southeast. Tuesday the Central, Wednesday the Northeast. Thursday and Friday NFL and CFL like normal. Next week, the Pacific on Monday, Atlantic Tuesday and Northwest Wednesday, with the season starting Friday in England, and blowing all of this into the water, no doubt.

Here we go.

As always, I love the Southeast. It’s a fun division to watch. Five teams with heavy artillery, and paper shields. Last season, 12 of the league’s top 50 scorers called the Southeast home. With guys like Kovalchuk and Hossa, Staal and Williams, Jokinen and Horton, Lecavalier and St-Louis, and Ovechkin and Semin, it’s a loaded division. Defense and goaltending are another story though. Carolina, Tampa and Washington have serious goaltending questions, and only Florida’s Jay Bouwmeester was a top-25 plus-minus defender last season.

CAROLINA HURRICANES
New gear: These new jerseys were the league’s worst-kept secret all summer long. I think the NHL08 cover photo leaked before the end of the playoffs. The white ring (red on the away jersey) on the shoulder yoke looks great. The colouring on the sleeves seems to be a bit much, but it’s not overwhelmingly bad. All in all, the Hurricanes remain among the league’s sharpest-dressed teams.

New year: Everyone in and around this team’s world insists last season was a fluke. And to a degree, I’m on board with that (so long as we can also rule that Cup win a fluke, too). An off-season injury to Frank Kaberle hurt the Canes early last season, and history looks to repeat itself this season. Kaberle is a stud on the Carolina blue line, and it’s going to hurt this team to be without him for another long stretch.

Cam Ward, Eric Staal and Cory Stillman all stalled last season, failing to produce at the level they were expected to, while youngsters Chad LaRose and Andrew Ladd didn’t continue their development as expected. With Ward, Staal and Stillman back on track, the Canes should be fine. If LaRose and Ladd can take that step forward, the Canes will be laughing all the way home.

With Matt Cullen’s return from a year on Broadway (as poorly-kept a secret as the new jerseys were), the Canes figure to get a big power play boost. Cullen was huge for them during the Cup run two seasons ago, and the Carolina faithful will be very happy to have him back.

New to the fold is Jeff Hamilton, a slightly enigmatic winger from Chicago. Hamilton very quietly was the Blackhawks’ third-leading scorer last season after Martin Havlat and Radim Vrbata, posting a 39-point campaign playing just 13 minutes a night. That’s low second-line production from fourth-line minutes. I can think of about 30 teams that could use a guy like Hamilton.

Outlook: At the bare minimum, the Hurricanes should return to the playoffs this season. At best, they return to the league’s upper echelon, and firmly plant themselves on the list of annual contenders. They’ll probably end up in a pretty epic battle with Tampa Bay over the Southeast Division crown. 3rd in East, 96 points

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
New gear: Again with the practice jerseys. These are fairly sharp, and very clean, but again, there is nothing about the jersey itself that makes it stand out as Tampa Bay’s jersey. Without the logo, this could be just the shirt you saw some guy wearing at the bar last weekend. The bolts will use the front number on the road, but not at home, and will continue to use block numbering. The new logo is change for the sake of change and is no better than their old logo.

New Year: Not much change in Hockey Bay. The Bolts return in 2007 with Martin St-Louis back on track, Vincent Lecavalier ready to continue his breakout and Brad Richards keeping everything together with his solid play. Add the seemingly revolving door of talent, and any number of Tampa players could be primed for big seasons.

Vaclav Prospal has always fit in well with this team, and he should be good for at least the 55 points he put up last season. Michel Ouellet comes over from Pittsburgh, and should be able to easily eclipse the 48 points he had last season with a boost in ice time (or his defensive liabilities will force coach John Tortorella to glue him to the bench). Ryan Craig will be looking to take the step forward he failed to take last season, and Jason Ward will try to erase the memories of his terrible play in Tampa’s first-round exit last spring.

Andreas Karlsson can’t do any worse than the nine points he had last season, and should be able to take his game to the next level with a full and healthy season. Jan Hlavac is back in the NHL after spending the last three seasons in Europe. Hlavac should be able to chip in 30-40 points, and play a role with this team.

As much as there is to like up front, though, the goaltending situation is shaky at best. Johan Holmqvist is the de facto starter, as Tortorella lost all confidence in Marc Denis last season. But neither net minder has been overly impressive. If the Bolts are going to make a serious run at (and in) the playoffs, one of these guys will have to step up.

On defense, this group isn’t much to write home about. But Tortorella runs a tight ship, and had these guys playing pretty well. Dan Boyle had a career year at both ends of the ice. Filip Kuba re-defined himself as a valuable offensive defenseman, and Paul Ranger looked like anything but a second-year defenseman.

Outlook: Lecavalier and St-Louis are always liable to go out and win a scoring title. So it’s up to the rest of these guys to get the Lightning to the playoffs. Brad Richards and Tim Taylor are the kind of leaders that can take a team of 12th-graders to the playoffs. So this team will go as far as two big “ifs” will let them: If the defense can continue to be more than the sum of their parts, and if the goaltending holds up, Tampa Bay will make lots of noise. 8th in East, 94 points.

FLORIDA PANTHERS
New gear: Given some time to reflect, these are just as bad as I first thought. Basically the same design as Nashville’s, but with overblown piping, odd elbow stripes on the underside of the sleeves, and no room on the back for Jay Bouwmeester’s name. That said, they weren’t kidding when they told us the logo was going to be bigger.

New year: The only thing bigger in Miami than the panther, is the trade they pulled off to land Tomas Vokoun. Last season, the Panthers finished seven points shy of a playoff berth, were 2-8 in shootouts, and 3-8 in overtime. Though Vokoun’s overtime and shootout records last season were just 2-1 and 2-3, if he can coax the Panthers to a .500 record in overtime this season, it’s a five-point improvement, and it says here he can steal at least one win to put Florida back into the playoffs. Vokoun is a top-five goalie, and though the Panthers still need help up front, Vokoun is plenty good enough to carry them to the playoffs.

Whether or not they can do so is up to the rest of the roster, which returns pretty well intact from last season. The Cats’ defense made great strides last season, and Bouwmeester finally started to become the defensive force he projected as in junior. His 12 goals were a career-high, and though he was four points shy of his career-best total, the 22-point jump in his plus-minus more than made up for the four points. A full season from Noah Welch should make the Gary Roberts trade last season look like a no-brainer. Welch projects as a number three defenseman at worst, and although he’ll do a lot of learning on the fly this coming season, they’ll love him in south Florida.

But as good as the goaltending will be, and as good as the defense should be, it’s all up to the offense. Dickie Zednik is being given yet another opportunity to prove his worth, as is Radek Dvorak. Nathan Horton was given a huge contract, and Rostislav Olesz and Stephen Weiss still need to show up they way they’re expected to.

Outlook: There is still work to be done in Florida, but if the Hurricanes, Thrashers or Lightning stumble again, and the Panthers turn things around in overtime (and on the road), the Panthers could find themselves in the post-season. But don’t anybody in Miami hold your breath. Note: my roommate Adam thinks I’m crazy, and Vokoun isn’t worth six points in the standings. 9th in East, 92 points.

ATLANTA THRASHERS
New gear: I really like the way they’ve applied the dark jersey to the new system. The jersey is essentially unchanged, and actually looks a little better than before. Sadly, the same cannot be said for the white jersey. I’ve really come around to like the piping, the shoulders and collar look great, but somehow this jersey just doesn’t quite pop.

New Year: The Thrashers are hoping Ilya Kovalchuk can rebound from what’s considered an off-year last season. The gifted Russian netted 42 goals, but his 76 points were below expectations. Kovalchuk’s first season without centre Marc Savard was far less successful than Savard’s was without Kovalchuk. If the Thrashers are going to return to the post-season, Kovalchuk has to find his way back to 90-plus points.

Eric Perrin and Todd White are a pair of new faces trying to fix a long-standing problem in Atlanta. Outside of Savard, the Thrashers have never even come close to having a true number-one centre. Neither Perrin, nor White is a typical first-line centre, but both have shown flashes of productivity in the past, and the Thrashers are hoping one of these guys can gel with Kovalchuk.

The Thrashers are looking at a lot of minor-league promotions this season, as they try to fill out the roster. Before camp breaks, it’s hard to say what this team is even going to look like. There are that many openings.

But for all the uncertainty surrounding this team, one this is for certain: Kari Lehtonen gives this team a chance to win every night. Lehtonen faltered in the playoffs, but should be able to rebound. Last season, in just his second full season in the NHL, Lehtonen slashed his goals-against average by 15 points, increased his save percentage, and bagged four shutouts. The sky remains the limit for Lehtonen.

Outlook: Outside of Lehtonen and Marian Hossa, the Thrashers have too many question marks to be in the mix again this season. The loss of Andy Sutton and Greg de Vries with only Ken Klee as a replacement isn’t exactly awe-inspiring. That said, Garnet Exelby is primed for a huge year. There’s probably enough here to make in interesting, but not enough to stop this team from falling just short. 10th in East, 92 points.

WASHINGTON CAPITALS
New gear: Welcome to the new NHL! These may be the worst of the lot. Actually, that’s a little unfair. I just don’t understand the stripes running up the inside of the sleeves. The updated version of their original logo is a nice touch, but lacks the charm the old 80’s Caps logo had.

New Year: The Capitals may finally have someone to play with Alex Ovechkin. Fresh off a stint on Broadway alongside Jaromir Jagr, Michael Nylander takes on his next project: getting the Capitals back to respectability, and keeping Ovechkin in the nightly highlights. For right now, let’s just say the latter will be a much easier task.

Also new to D.C. after some time in New York are Viktor Kozlov and Tom Poti, both former Islanders. Kozlov won’t be expected to put up big numbers like Nylander will be. That said, alongside second-year winger Alexander Semin, it’s easy to believe Kozlov could have a big year. Semin had 73 points as a rookie last season, and should produce even more this season.

Tom Poti will be asked to anchor a blue line that ranked among the league’s worst last season. It says here, they’ll remain there this time around. Poti is a good offensive defenseman, but he’s hardly the guy to anchor a young defense corps like this. It’s too early in camp to say for certain, but the Caps’ first two picks in June’s draft, Karl Alzner and Josh Godfrey, will have legitimate opportunities to make this team. I’m not sold on Alzner, but Godfrey came as close as anyone did to being a stud defenseman for Canada during the recent Super Series.

Outlook: Until the Capitals get some real help on defense, they’re in trouble. First, they extra load on the aging Olaf Kolzig leads him to run the risk of injury (again), and second, Brent Johnson doesn’t exactly cause opposing forwards to cower in fear. When this team makes that turn, from also-ran to contender, it’s going to happen very quickly. This is not the year for that turn, though. 14th in East, 80 points.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I think you forgot to put the Leafs on your post :)