Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Round two, part two

Detroit Red Wings (1) vs. San Jose Sharks (5)

Way back in 1994, the San Jose Sharks were making their first-ever playoff appearance, and they shocked the favoured Red Wings, winning the seven-game series. The Wings won the only other playoff meeting between these two teams, and 12 years later, we finally get the rubber match.

The Red Wings have talked a lot about their improved grit. They now roll guys like Kyle Calder and Todd Bertuzzi out to wear down the opposing defensemen. That’s in addition to grinders like Kris Draper and Kirk Maltby, and crease-crashers Johan Franzen and Tomas Holmstrom (day-to-day with an eye injury). Mix in high-end talent from Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk, an all-world defense corps, and one of the best goaltenders the league’s ever seen, and the Wings start to look very formidable.

But the Sharks are not to be outdone. They have last season’s points and goals leaders in Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo. Young sniper Milan Michalek enjoyed a coming out of sorts in the first round (four goals in five games), and captain Patrick Marleau leads the way with 43 points in his last 45 playoff games. The Sharks don’t have a Nicklas Lidstrom on defense, but they run a tight ship, and the forwards love to help out.

Speaking of Lidstrom, he will likely draw the Thornton line as his checking assignment, leaving Marleau’s line to try their best to run roughshod in the offensive zone.

Both the Wings’ Dominik Hasek and the Sharks’ Evgeni Nabokov are known for their temperament, but the Sharks have a failsafe in goal with Vesa Toskala should Nabokov falter.

And if you thought Calgary’s fans gave the Flames a boost at home, wait till the Wings get a load of the fans at the HP Pavilion. All signs point to Sharks in six.

New Jersey Devils (2) vs. Ottawa Senators (4)

Ottawa dispatched Pittsburgh with relative ease in the first round, showing more grit than we’ve come to expect from the Senators. And everyone in Ottawa is feeling good about Ray Emery in goal. These grittier Senators will once again have their hands full with the always gritty Devils.

New Jersey overcame early adversity to knock off Tampa Bay in the first round. The Bolts got to Martin Brodeur early in the series, but Brodeur found his groove, and shut the door in three consecutive wins. As always, everything the Devils want to do comes down to Brodeur. Despite having no real offensive depth after Scott Gomez, Patrick Elias, Brian Gionta and Zach Parise, the Devils continually find ways to score, and give Brodeur the lead. From there, it’s usually academic.

The Devils do have a hole in their defense. Brian Rafalski picked up seven points in the first round, but the Devils have relied heavily on rookies Andy Greene and John Oduya. Ottawa will have to find ways to exploit the youngsters, which may mean juggling lines to get their big guns away from the Devils’ checking unit. Ten Ottawa forwards played in all five of their first round games, and they all recorded at least two points. They will have to continue with that kind of scoring balance to get past the Devils.

One area of note: Ottawa’s big guns Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza were both minus-2 in the first round. The Devils play a strong transition game, and will look to exploit Spezza and Heatley’s defensive weakness.

Almost entirely because Emery left practice with an injury earlier in the week: Devils in seven.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Stanley Cup playoffs, round two

Quick housekeeping note before I get started here: is it just me, or do the labels “conference quarter finals” and “conference semi-finals” et al completely and utterly lack any pop? Frankly, I prefer to call them by the round number. It’s simple, and in my mind, whenever I saw “Round one,” all I can here is the Mortal Kombat voice. Maybe it’s just me though.

I went a pitiful 4-for-8 in the first round, and it’s time to rectify that. So, round two (conference semi-finals).

Anaheim Ducks (2) vs. Vancouver Canucks (3)

I’m just going to say it. The Canucks are overmatched here. They could barely score goals against Dallas, and now they have to contend with two of the best defensemen in the game. They may take game one, and catch the Ducks off guard, but after that…

While I’m not a big Chris Pronger fan, even I can’t ignore the performances he’s offered this post-season and last. He’s been one of the best, and single-handedly made up for all of Jaroslav Spacek’s attempts to derail the Oilers last year. When Pronger’s not on the ice, Scott Niedermayer is. Niedermayer is the only defensemen not named Lidstrom to win the Norris Trophy in the last five years, and the Ducks captain is essentially as good as it gets on defense. They defend a goal tended to by either Ilya Bryzgalov or J-S Giguere, both of whom do so very well. Up front, the Ducks have Teemu Selanne, still playing like he’s 10 years younger than he is, and his sidekick Andy McDonald. Young guns Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are always a threat, and the eight other forwards will grind poor Kevin Bieksa and Willie Mitchell nearly through the boards.

So where does that leave the Canucks? Well, it doesn’t look good. The best thing they have going for them is Roberto Luongo, whose international tournament experience seems to have prepared him well for the NHL playoffs. That said, the Canucks were overly reliant on Luongo in the first round, and will have to try hard not to fall back into that habit against the Ducks. Daniel and Henrik Sedin have found great chemistry with Taylor Pyatt, but Markus Naslund has to find the back of the net if Vancouver has any chance to win this series.

The Canucks were pushed around by Dallas, and the Ducks are a much more physical team. So while the Canucks may not be pushovers, Anaheim in five.

Buffalo Sabres (1) vs. New York Rangers (6)

The Rangers are a trendy pick in the second round. They dismantled Atlanta, playing just the minimum, and ran up a lot of goals. Talking heads are picking the Sabres apart for not playing a perfect series against a very tough, and very well-coached Islanders team in the first round, and as such, the Rangers have become darlings.

But make no mistake. The Sabres are the best team in the NHL, and have been all year. In their five-game series with the Islanders, 10 Sabres had three points or more, just four players have minus ratings, and Ryan Miller is still one of the best goalies in the NHL right now. Lindy Ruff is a proven head coach, and one of the best in the game, while even Sports Illustrated had to give captain Chris Drury his due for just knowing how to win. With great leadership, four lines that can score, a very reliable defense corps, and an All-Star goalie, the Sabres are simply tough to beat.

That said, the Rangers match up pretty well with Buffalo—assuming Jaromir Jagr comes to play. When Jagr has the puck, and wants to keep it, the Rangers defensemen get a rest. He can keep the play out of their defensive end for entire shifts. He is the catalyst for everything the Rangers want to do offensively. But his teammates have to step up. Michael Nylander collected eight points against Atlanta, and the Rangers won easily. Brendan Shanahan held up his end of the deal, and played very well in the first round, and even Sean Avery picked up five points, while completely throwing Atlanta’s Ilya Kovalchuk off his game. Henrik Lundqvist posted sparkling numbers, and seems to have found his groove (which was lost most of the season). The defensemen in front of him are playing very well, and head coach Tom Renney is rarely out-coached.

But as good as the Rangers have been lately, and as thoroughly as they dismantled the Thrashers, they’re the same streaky team we saw all season. Any time they win four in a row, a three-losses-in-five-games stretch could be right around the bend. Buffalo in six.

Tomorrow the previews and picks for Detroit-San Jose and Ottawa-New Jersey.