Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Conference semis

Round two, here we go. After a 6-2 performance in the first round, I’m out to prove it was no fluke. So without further delay, the conference semi finals…

Montreal Canadiens v Philadelphia Flyers.
We’re looking at a pretty even matchup, right down to the fact both teams nearly succeeded in blowing 3-1 series leads.
These are two young teams, that lean heavily on their youth, and the invaluable contributions of a few cagey vets to get the job done.
Up front, two very strong offenses, led by lethal power play units. With seven players registering more than 50 points, the Habs were about as balanced as it comes in the regular season. The Flyers counter with six players over 50 points, including three players with more than 70, compared to just Alex Kovalev for Montreal.
Montreal had the league’s best power play in the regular season, Philadelphia was second, though the Flyers maintained their power play against Washington while Montreal’s fizzled against Boston.
Both teams have underrated puck-movers on defense, both teams have goalies looking to prove their worth. Both teams have fans that believe their coaches are in way over their heads.
In the end, does Philly’s grit win out over the Montreal’s abundant talent? If Montreal can play this series the way they played games one and seven against Boston, and if Martin Biron keeps coughing up leads the way he did against Washington, the Canadiens should win this series.
Also of note: the Habs swept the season series, winning all four games while outscoring the Flyers 15-6.
Montreal in six.

Pittsburgh Penguins v New York Rangers.
After disappointing runs in last year’s playoffs, both teams look to make their mark on this year’s proceedings. This series may come down to home-ice advantage, with the Penguins enjoying a 28-10-5 mark at home this season (including playoffs), and the Rangers putting up a fairly pedestrian 17-14-10 mark away from the Garden in the regular season-- though they’re 3-0 in the playoffs.
In their opening series, both the Pens’ and Rangers’ best players were just that. Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby and New York’s Jaromir Jagr each posted eight points in making quick work of their first-round opponents. Evgeni Malkin and Scott Gomez each contributed seven points, and New York’s Chris Drury offered all the things Chris Drury offers, almost none of which ever appear on a score sheet.
Of course, for all the offensive firepower these teams have, this series will be won and lost on the blue line, and in the blue paint of the goal crease.
In both of those departments the Rangers have a very clear edge. The Penguins have a solid defense corps, but Sergei Gonchar, Ryan Whitney and Hall Gill have all been dogged by questions about their ability to defend their own zone. The Rangers on the other hand, just seems to keep improving. Watching Dan Girardi and Marc Staal start to come into their own in the New Jersey series was a pleasure.
And in goal, it’s no contest between Vezina-candidate Henrik Lundvist and Marc-Andre Fleury.
Both teams fared well in the first round against favourable opposition, and will face their first real test against one another in the second round. This series is the reason Gomez and Drury were given those contracts last summer.
New York in seven.

Detroit Red Wings v Colorado Avalanche.
Don’t tell Darren McCarty, Chris Osgood, Nick Lidstrom, Kirk Maltby, Adam Foote, Peter Forsberg or Joe Sakic that it’s not 1998.
Sure, it’s been a long time since this rivalry’s heyday, but it’s still fresh in the minds of fans, those seven players, and the people that provide the programming for the NHL Network, and this one should be as good as any of those series were, if less bloody.
Purely on the levels of talent two teams can offer, this series is one of the most compelling. Lidstrom is the best defenseman in the world, and one of the five best to ever play the game. Around him, Brian Rafalski and Chris Chelios are pretty good. They’ll be moving pucks to Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, and gifted speedsters like Jiri Hudler and Dan Cleary. Countering for Colorado are capable puck movers John-Michael Liles and Ruslan Salei, looking to spring Sakic, Forsberg, Paul Stastny, Milan Hejduk, and the gaggle of talented forwards the Avalanche have to offer.
And the speed. Oh the speed. With good ice in both Denver and Detroit, and offense-oriented systems, look for Osgood and Jose Theodore to face heavy fire throughout this series.
In fact, it doesn’t even matter which team wins this series, because the fans are going to be the real winners.
In the end, Detroit’s very slight edge in goal, and hefty edge on the blue line will carry them to the Western final.
Detroit in six.

San Jose Sharks v Dallas Stars.
Much like the Montreal-Philly series, this is another one of those wonderfully-even match-ups. The teams split the season series, with Dallas actually gaining more points by virtue of a pair of overtime losses.
It’s tough not to like what the Stars showed in their first-round series with Anaheim. Dallas dominated that series from start to finish, save for game five. They showed great patience, which was on display moreso than ever in game six, a game the Stars trailed at the beginning of the third period.
The Sharks, meanwhile, didn’t show a whole lot during their series with Calgary, being taken to the brink of elimination by the underdog Flames.
In that series, Evgeni Nabokov showed flashes of brilliance, but plenty of ordinary. Against a better-coached Stars team, those stretches of ordinary will haunt the Sharks. At the other end of the rink, Marty Turco looks ready to exorcise all of his playoff demons. After an excellent performance in last season’s first round, when he was simply outdone by Roberto Luongo, Turco put on another display of excellence in knocking off the defending champs.
The Stars also have an x-factor in defenseman Sergei Zubov, who resumed skating the day the Sharks were busy with a game seven. His return should only boost the Dallas power play, which went cold in the second half of their opening series, but has the ability to get hot at any time.
Also of note, when these teams met in the last game of the regular season, with no way to alter their seedings, the game got quite heated. As the tension mounted in that game, the Stars were able to turn in a rock solid performance. Yes, I just questioned the Sharks toughness, again.
Dallas in seven.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Beating a dead horse

Look, if the Knicks can wise up and fire Isiah, the Jays have to wake up at some point and fire Ricciardi, right?

Today, the Blue Jays released Frank Thomas, the 39-year old slugger with diminishing returns they’d signed before last season to fill the hole in their offense.

The slugger, at the time 37-years old, they signed for $10 million a year, instead of locking up, say, a pitcher.

The slugger, viewed as a locker-room cancer in his final days in Chicago. The slugger, who eventually sulked and complained to the media when he was benched for a game in Toronto.

The slugger, who suggested his playing time was being slashed so the Blue Jays wouldn’t be on the hook for another year of his $10 million contract.

The slugger, with a .167 batting average so far this season.

Good riddance to you , Frank Thomas. And here’s hoping someone at the top of the Blue Jays’ ladder is keeping a running tab of the mistakes they’re letting Ricciardi make.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Egg on the Sens' faces

Well, Ottawa, all I have to say to you is that you really deserved this. The Senators used to be a model franchise in the NHL. They were built through the draft after struggles early in their existence. They held on to their most important home-grown talent, and were able to turn mistakes like Alexei Yashin’s contract into important pieces like Zdeno Chara and the pick they used to draft Jason Spezza.

For a while, the Sens played underdogs to the big, bad, big-budget Maple Leafs, and on a place in the hearts of almost everyone outside of Toronto.

The Sens used to be loyal-- to a fault, keeping guys like Damien Rhodes, Jacques Martin and Magnes Arvedson around well beyond their best-before dates.

Coming into this season, new head coach John Paddock had to like the way his future looked. An intensely-loyal organization that he’d been loyal to. An organization that loves to build from within, as guys like Daniel Alfredsson, Anton Volchenkov, Andrej Meszaros, Chris Phillips and Ray Emery can attest to. The Sens were coming off a trip to the Stanley Cup Final, and were favourites to win their division, and get back to at least the Eastern Conference final.

But they stumbled along the way, and Bryan Murray, the man behind every shake-up in Ottawa the last two years, sent Paddock packing midway through the year. Murray stepped back behind the bench himself, helping to lead the Senators to just 18 wins in their final 38 games this season.

That run culminated with the Senators being bounced from the playoffs, on home ice, in just four games.

The blame for this disappointing season can’t all be put on Murray, or any other one player. But if nothing else, it proves Paddock was clearly not responsible for the mess the Senators find themselves in this post-season.

Looks good on them, if you ask me.

Memo to Montreal: that was the worst performance I’ve ever seen in a potential clinching game. Wearing mittens I could count the number of smart plays and good passes the Habs made in the third period.

In other news, happy trails to Steve McNair-- one of the best video-game quarterbacks of all time, and one of the best real-life quarterbacks of the last decade. His Titans were fun to watch, and I don’t think there’s anyone that dislikes McNair. Much the way it’s hard to think anyone will ever forget his, and the Titans, memorable performance in Super Bowl XXXIV. All the best, Steve, you were one of the best.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Goodbye Peter Griffin

I may just be a lowly guy with a lowly blog, whose readership includes his mother-- and not much else.

So I know I have no right to question TSN’s Bob McKenzie or ESPN’s E.J. Hradek, but in the case of former Vancouver GM Dave Nonis, I have to.

The Canucks let Nonis go this week after missing the playoffs, and this space couldn’t think of a better move (other than not hiring him in the first place). Now it’s no secret I’m no fan of Nonis, but that’s mostly because he hasn’t done much of anything to warrant a fan.

He took over Brian Burke’s Canucks team, and has left the team basically intact. Eight regulars, plus Matt Cooke, who was traded at this season’s trading deadline, remain. The Sedins were probably worth keeping, since it’s almost impossible to judge fair value in a return package. The Canucks can’t give away captain Markus Naslund or Brendan Morrison, both of whom are mere shadows of their former selves. Ryan Kesler is the only forward that has improved since Nonis took over the team. Trevor Linden was given a three-season goodbye lap, and as much as I’m a fan of Mattias Ohlund and Sami Salo, you’ve eventually gotta cut ties with players that can’t stay in the lineup-- especially when those players are 30 and 32, respectively.

As for the guys that have come in since Nonis took over, obviously Roberto Luongo has been spectacular. And Nonis was a big winner in that trade. Luongo and Lukas Krajicek have been much more important to the Canucks than Alex Auld (now with Boston), Todd Bertuzzi (now with Anaheim) and Bryan Allen have been the Panthers. Though Nonis loses points for failing to acquire a viable backup goalie to give Luongo a rest every now and then.

At a $1.6 million cap hit, Taylor Pyatt hasn’t been a horrible signing, but 37 points this season (and last) is hardly something to write home about. Jeff Cowan is another of Nonis’ guys. In 88 games in two seasons, his eight goals and four assists are un-paralleled. But it’s OK because Brad Isbister was able to turn in a serious contract-year performance of six goals and five assists in his 55 games. With 11 points in 71 games, was Byron Ritchie really the most reliable of the Canucks’ recent free-agent signings?

Admittedly, Alexandre Burrows had a pretty good season, and carved out a really nice niche for himself as the pest the Canucks haven’t had since Jarkko Ruutu. Of course, he was signed as a free agent by Bukre, not Nonis.

Alex Edler, Luc Bourdon, Kevin Bieksa, they’ve all become young stalwarts on the Canucks’ blue line. Of the three, only Bourdon was drafted by Nonis, 10th overall in the 2005 draft, which turned out a pretty impressive top-10.

From his three drafts, Nonis has exactly two players in the lineup regularly, and that’s if we’re generous and call Mason Raymond’s 49 games this season “regularly appearing.” Montreal and Columbus each boast three regulars from the 2005 draft alone. And sure, there are 10 teams that haven’t had a single player from those drafts appear regularly, but that’s hardly a good measuring stick, and the Canucks aren’t exactly overflowing with prospects.

What’s better, instead of trading older, veteran, oft-injured guys for decent prospects and picks, the Canucks are saddled with limited resources in the system, loads of cap room in 2008-09, but face the free agency of the Sedins, Pyatt, Krajicek, Edler and Burrows in 2009-10, and probably new deals for Naslund and Morrison this summer, eating up any cap space they had.

So in short, Nonis doesn’t draft well, doesn’t manage the cap well, and doesn’t know when to move his assets while they still have value. Sounds like a man that should be out of a job. And, in this very space, it was written about Nonis, “you won’t even get a chance to be a hypocrite when all is said and done because you’ll be out of a job before Sidney Crosby is an unrestricted free agent.” Another point for Steve. At least I never called him “Ted” this time…

Tomorrow we take on the Senators.

Monday, April 14, 2008

A legend in the making?

Yeah, it’s very early to call it, but clearly, it’s worth wondering.

Just one season and three playoff games into his NHL career, Boston’s Milan Lucic is making quite an impression, and showing a knack for coming up big on big stages.

We saw glimpses of what the future holds for this 19-year old pro at the 2007 World Junior Tournament, where he was one of Team Canada’s best players. The people of Vancouver saw it during the 2007 Western League playoffs, when Lucic practically carried the Giants past Medicine Hat in the final, and again when Lucic almost single-handedly led the Giants to the Memorial Cup championship. Lucic took home MVP honours, and was named to the tournament all-star team.

All Lucic did to follow that performance was to captain Team Canada during the Super Series last summer. Canada dominated the Russians in the eight-game set, winning seven of the eight games. After that, Lucic went ahead and won a roster spot with the rebuilding Bruins.

He showed grit and leadership all season long with the Bruins, and took on all comers, including a memorable season-long battle with Montreal’s Mike Komisarek, en route to an improbable playoff berth.

And it was against Montreal Lucic had his brightest moment of the season, scoring early in the first period of game three to give the Bruins a 1-0 lead on home ice. It’s well-documented that the goal gave Boston their first lead against Montreal all season long, but it’s worth mentioning again because of the magnitude. At a time when former all stars like Marc Savard and team captain Zdeno Chara had no way to solve the Canadiens, Lucic scored the biggest goal of the season.

It was a huge goal that only those special big-time performers can score. Lucic may have just three playoff games under his belt, but it certainly looks like he’s poised to become a big-time performer for a long time.

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Just some thoughts.

Some thoughts that rattled around after the first night of the 2008 playoffs.

Evgeni Malkin’s goal. Oh. My. God. Seriously, he kicked it to his stick, which was being lifted at the moment he kicked the puck, got his stick back down, and flipped the puck past Martin Gerber from a nearly-impossible angle. Just wow.

Still in the Ottawa game, just one night ago, this very space criticized Wade Redden, and wondered what Wade’s got left in the tank. And while even my little sister could tell you Redden has been playing like hell lately, that fight was huge. Sure, he fights about as well as he’s played this season, but it was the message he sent to his teammates. The Senators were written off by almost everyone going into this game, and were sure to be written off by even more after. But Redden may have helped get the team focused again.

Out west, sure Colorado won, but they had to blow a two-goal lead to do so. Andrew Brunette is one of those guys that just gets the job done in the playoffs. He had an assist, and provided the screen on Joe Sakic’s overtime winner. If I may borrow from, and butcher a line from Wesley Snipes: always bet on Brunette.

Martin Brodeur looked pretty ordinary in game one. TSN showed a great clip of Brodeur at the end of the warm-up, leaning against the boards at the bench, looking completely disinterested. It followed a clip of Henrik Lundqvist looking so pumped up he might burst. None of this bodes well for the Devils. Of note, Sergei Brylin is another one of those playoff guys.

Speaking of those playoff guys, the Calgary Flames have one in Stephane Yelle. Maybe it was a one-off, and maybe Yelle goes back to his normal unproductive ways in game two, but I don’t see it. Playing with Jarome Iginla, Yelle is too smart, and too good to falter. Ryan Clowe scored a pair of goals for the Sharks, and while it’s premature to give him the label, he may be on his way to being one of those playoff guys as well.

Last note on the Sharks. The last minute of game one was nothing short of frantic, but is it just me, or did the Sharks seem a little too desperate to not lose? Might be worth keeping an eye on.

Elsewhere, this has been eating at my brain since the draft lottery, so I’m just going to put it out there: is there any way Tampa Bay doesn’t screw up the first pick? They don’t have amateur scouts (or so it seems), and don’t seem to know how to properly evaluate talent as said talent would fit within the organization, so they can’t afford to trade down-- not even to flip with Los Angeles. The Kings will at least be able to decide between Alex Pietrangelo (can’t tell you how happy I am to have that surname back in my world) and Drew Daughty with the number two pick. And they’ll be wise enough to not rush their pick to the NHL. Can’t say the same about Tampa.

We know Tampa is taking Steve Stamkos first overall. We know Stamkos is too small to play in the NHL and dominate right now. We know he needs at least one more year in junior. We know John Tortorella rides his players exceptionally hard. And we know Tampa is more than likely to rush Stamkos to the NHL.

This is not a Patrick Kane-and-Jonathan Toews or Kyle Turris situation. The Bolts won’t look at Stamkos as the first perfect chip in a rebuilding project, and there will be a lot of pressure on him, and him alone, to take the Bolts back to the promised land-- in year one.

Please, Tampa Bay, do all hockey fans a favour, and trade the pick to Columbus for Nik Zherdev and their first-round pick. It’s the only way to save this kid’s career.

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Playoff preview, day two

And the East.

Montreal Canadiens v Boston Bruins.
It’s hard to ignore the way the Canadiens have dominated the Bruins lately, winning the last 11 times they’ve met.
It’s hard to ignore the parallels between Carey Price’s emergence as a rookie, and Patrick Roy’s emergence as a rookie in 1986, including their 2007 and 1985 Calder Cup wins.
It’s hard to ignore the great season Alex Kovalev had in 2008, posting the second-highest points total of his career.
And of course, it’s hard to ignore the fact the Canadiens won the Eastern Conference.
But the hardest thing to ignore is the 2004 playoffs, when the Bruins were heavy favorites against Montreal in the first round, and pulled off a memorable collapse, losing a 3-1 series lead.
That series is a cautionary tale the Canadiens have to consider as they prepare to take on the Bruins.
Montreal’s biggest asset is their ability to play hockey any way their opponents want to. If the Bruins want to open up and run-n-gun (they don’t), Montreal can match them. If the B’s want to play defense, and clog up the neutral zone, Montreal can break through, and if the Bruins want to get rough and tumble, even the Kostitsyn brothers showed they’re prepared to stand up to Zdeno Chara.
Montreal in five.

Pittsburgh Penguins v Ottawa Senators.
Oddly enough, the Senators have already been pretty well written off heading into this series. Though for good reason.
The Sens really are a mess between the pipes, and their team defense has deteriorated. Chris Phillips has not been able to match the level he played at during last spring’s run to the Final. Wade Redden has slipped so far, the Sens are desperate to trade him, and the younger guys just don’t seem quite ready.
But Pittsburgh’s best defenseman is Sergei Gonchar, whose defensive-zone play isn’t exactly lauded. The Penguins’ concept of team defense is basically “Get the puck to Crosby.” These teams don’t play a whole lot of defense, as evidenced by the fact both teams were in the bottom-third of the league’s penalty killers.
So, as it should, this series will come down to Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley versus Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, and whichever power play gets hot.
Here’s the one caveat. If Pittsburgh gets outside of their regular game plan, if they try to play more conservatively and check the Senators, getting outside of their puck-control system, they’re done.
But I think Michel Therrien is too smart to do that.
Pittsburgh in six.

Washington Capitals v Philadelphia Flyers.
This one is just too tough to call. But here goes.
Alex Ovechkin cannot be stopped, and most nights, he cannot be contained. Do the Flyers assign Mike Richards to check Ovechkin throughout the series? My guess is yes, since Jim Dowd can‘t skate with Ovechkin, Scottie Upshall or Scott Hartnell will take too many penalties against Ovechkin, and no defensive pairing can do it alone. That takes Richards out of his role as Philly’s top scorer, even if they play strength-on-strength.
And even if they slow Ovechkin down, the Caps have shown since the trade deadline that guys like Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Semin, Sergei Fedorov, and the always-clutch Matt Cooke need to be contained.
The Capitals’ secondary scorers, though, aren’t as deep as Philly’s. Where the Caps make up for that, is in the emergence of Mike Green on defense. Coupled with Tom Poti, the Caps always have a blue liner on the ice to make a strong first pass, and they’ll be able to catch the Flyers’ defense on their heels often.
The biggest difference is likely in goal. Martin Biron had a really good season in Philly, and is a very good goalie. But Cristobal Huet is one season removed from an All-Star Game appearance (Biron is one season removed from being a backup), Huet is 3-0 in his last four starts against Philly, including a shutout (Biron has one win in his last three starts against Washington), and since a Tuesday night game in November in Montreal is more pressure-packed than this Friday’s game in Washington will be, Huet has an edge when it comes down to playing under fire. His 11-2 record, and 1.36 goals-against average and .936 save percentage down the stretch with the Caps is further evidence of that.
Capitals in six.

New Jersey Devils v New York Rangers.
Another tricky one, if only because the Devils won the only game between these two teams that really mattered in 2008. On the last day of the regular season, the Rangers had an opportunity to sweep the season series, and grab home-ice advantage in this series. The Blue Shirts won eight more games at Madison Square Garden this season than they won away from home.
But the Devils jumped out to an early lead, and while they ultimately needed extra time to win, win they did. And clinched home ice for this series.
Special teams is the most likely area that will give either team an edge. The Rangers had a better penalty-killing unit this season (sixth overall to New Jersey’s 13th) and a slightly better power play percentage (22nd to New Jersey’s 25th).
In their seven losses to the Rangers, the Devils scored just seven goals, and were shut out twice. And while four of the eight games went to overtime, the Devils lost three of them. It’s hard to bet against Martin Brodeur, but it’s hard to like a team that can’t score at any time, let alone in the clutch.
Despite their poor road record, the Rangers were 3-1 in the swamp, and should be able to win one more there in the playoffs.
Rangers in six.

Monday, April 07, 2008

Playoff preview, day one

Let’s start in the West.

Detroit Red Wings v Nashville Predators.
Certainly, no one expected the Predators to be holding onto a playoff spot before the season started, but they gritted out a strong season and now they’ll face the President’s Trophy-winning Red Wings. Some reward.
Being NCAA tournament season and all, everyone loves a Cinderella, it’s just doubtful the Predators can wear those slippers against this Wings team.
The Wings have the same strong offensive attack they’ve always had, and they’ve been stingier than ever, giving up a paltry 184 goals this season.
If the Wings have any weakness, it may be their penalty killing-- the one area the team finished outside the top five. That said, Nashville’s middling offense turns into a pop-gun offense when they have the man advantage. The Preds had the league’s fourth-worst power play in 2008.
Then there’s this: I’ve seen a guy named Dov Gromet-Morris win more games in the American League than I ever saw Dan Ellis win there (0-6 in games I saw). Sure, minor league success, or lack thereof, doesn’t necessarily translate to the NHL level, but I can’t put too much faith in a guy with that stat facing a future Hall of Famer like Dominik Hasek.
Red Wings in five.

San Jose Sharks v Calgary Flames.
For selfish reasons, I would love to see the Flames go all the way to the Final. Realistically, though, I just don’t see them getting past these Sharks.
Despite low individual scoring totals, and despite finishing in the bottom half of the league in team scoring, the Sharks managed to post the second-best points total in the NHL with 108.
Rather than smoke and mirrors, the Sharks relied on Evgeni Nabokov, whose superlative season should leave him in the Vezina Trophy hunt. His 46 wins led the league and 2.14 goals-against average was third best. In addition, the Sharks had a knack all season long for getting their way out of trouble, posting the best penalty killing percentage in the league. Their top-10 power play also made teams pay for giving them the man advantage.
As it were, the Flames had the league’s 10th-worst penalty kill, and found themselves shorthanded more than every team except Anaheim. Only Atlanta, Carolina and Toronto gave up more power play goals than the Flames did.
Of course, for the Flames, it all comes down to Jarome Iginla and Mikke Kiprusoff’s performances. If Kipper gets hot, and Iggy can continue to drag this team with him, all bets are off.
Sharks in seven.

Minnesota Wild v Colorado Avalanche.
This series may actually be harder to handicap than the Washington-Philadelphia series, but I’ll give it a try.
Minnesota won the season series rather handily, going 5-2-1 against Colorado in 2008. But, just one of those wins was in Colorado. The Wild will have to find a way to win games in Denver if they’re going to win this series.
By the same token, Colorado’s 17 road wins were the fewest among playoff teams. So they’re also faced with the prospect of being forced to win on the road.
Are we actually witnessing the second coming of Jose Theodore in Colorado? Is Niklas Backstrom ready for the playoff spotlight?
Can we get the Minnesota Golden Gophers to play a seven-game series against the Denver Pioneers while we’re at it?
Here’s the fearless, and wildly unlikely prediction. As he did in 2003, Andrew Brunette will score the series-winning goal, but this time, he scores it for Colorado against his old team.
Colorado in seven.

Anaheim Ducks v Dallas Stars.
This is barely worth the effort it will take to type it out.
J-S Giguere is the second-best playoff goalie in the league. Marty Turco is one of the worst the league’s ever seen.
Sami Pahlsson is the second coming of Jere Lehtinen, who isn’t even a shell of his former self anymore.
Ryan Getzlaf v Mike Ribiero, you’re kidding right?
As much as I love Trevor Daley and rookie Matt Niskanen, and as solid as Stephane Robidas, Philippe Boucher, Matty Norstrom and Nicklas Grossman have been, I’d like to introduce you to Kent Huskins.
Huskins, who you’ve probably never heard of, posted a plus-23 rating this season. That’s equal to, or better than every single Star’s plus/minus.
Of course, watching Steve Ott try to goad Chris Pronger into a series-long suspension will be a lot of fun, and the most intriguing part of this series.
Anaheim in five.

Sunday, April 06, 2008

Stanley Cup prediction

Let’s kick things off with a look back at my pre-season predictions, the worst I’ve ever offered. Though, to be fair to myself, I did have Pittsburgh finishing second in the East.

The good: The Western Conference. While I flip-flopped Detroit and San Jose at one and two, I had Minnesota third, Anaheim fourth, and Colorado, Dallas and Calgary in the post-season dance-- just in the wrong spots. I had the Kings in last place, and even called Edmonton’s goaltending switcheroo.

The bad: Buffalo, Florida, Carolina and Tampa Bay. I had all of them in the playoffs. Instead, the three teams I picked to finish 13th, 14th and 15th (Philly, Washington and Boston, respectively) will all enjoy the post-season, though not very long for two of them.

So, here’s the Stanley Cup pick, and we’ll get down to the business of breaking down the series Monday and Tuesday night.

It’s the Ducks. Of course it’s the Ducks. Starting from the net out, other than Martin Brodeur and Dominik Hasek, no other goalie has as much playoff experience, and particularly Stanley Cup Final experience, as J-S Giguere.

On defense, the formula certainly worked last season, and it’s just very hard to beat a team that has either Scott Niedermayer or Chris Pronger on the ice at all times. Matthieu Schneider brings a boatload of experience to the blueline, Francois Beuachemin took a step back this season, but is one of the best fourth-defencemen around. Add a little Marc-Andre Bergeron to taste, and some Kent Huskins, Sean O’Donnell and the underrated Joe Dipenta, and the Ducks have the best blue line corps around.

Up front, the Ducks dropped off a little in 2008, scoring 53 fewer goals than in 2007. That said, Ryan Getzlaf missed time with injuries, as did Corey Perry, who didn’t really take the step forward most thought he would, and Teemu Selanne only played 26 games. It’s easy to see how the team’s production dropped off.

That said, the Ducks also gave up fewer goals in 2008. This squad really clamped down defensively, and checking-line guys like Travis Moen, Rob Niedermayer and Sami Pahlsson all played to the top-notch form they showed last spring.

There’s also the little matter of how well this team played after Scott Niedermayer returned from semi-retirement. In 34 games without Nidermayer, the Ducks had a 15-15-4 record. Since his return, they’ve posted a 32-12-4 record. I guess he’s pretty good. And if that’s not enough, since Selanne’s return from his semi-retirement, the Ducks are a startling 20-5-1.

So, for all of these reasons, and many more, the Anaheim Ducks will repeat as Stanley Cup champions. There’s just nobody out there that can stop them in a seven-game series.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

A new beginning

While it's much too soon to officially give my heart to another ball club, it's never too soon for a fling. Thus, Sports With Steve's official preferred 2008 Major League Baseball team is the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubbies signed the recently-dispatched Reed Johnson, giving them an instant leg up. In an extra bit of eff-you to J.P. and those determined to destroy the Blue Jays, the Cubbies also found a place for another guy the Jays had no use for: Ted Lilly.

Lilly was a damn fine Blue Jay (except all that fighting-with-the-manager stuff), and his 15 wins in 2007 with Chicago may have propelled the Blue Jays into the playoffs, where the team would have made at least enough money to cover the difference between Lilly's contract demands, and the Jays' lackluster offer.

But hey, who needs a 30-year old left-handed starting pitcher that was not only the team's lone All Star in 2004, but also coming off a career-high 15 wins (as Lilly was at the end of 2006), when you can get a 38-year old designated hitter whose 2001, 2004 and 2005 seasons were limited to 128 total games, coming off a season in which he posted a batting average more than 30 points lower than his career average, and was generally regarded as finished (as Frank Thomas, given the money Lilly wanted, was at the end of the 2006 season)? But I digress...

In addition to these two great former Jays, and SWS favourites, the 2008 Cubbies also have a few others things this little area of the Net loves:

Big-time corners: Derrek Lee averaging nearly a hit a game in his career, and posting a gorgeous .994 fielding percentage at first base. That's good for two Gold Gloves, and if that's not enough, he was the first Cubs' first-bagger to play in an All-Star Game since Mark Grace, and first to start since Ernie Banks (oddly-symmetrically-enough in 2005, 1985 and 1965 respectively). How's that for a real Cub? At the other corner Aramis Ramirez, who joined Lee at the 2005 All-Star Game. Though Ramirez's fielding leaves something to be desired, he's averaging 159 hits, 30 home runs and 100 RBI over the last seven seasons. In that span, he's also cut his gaudy 100-ish strikeouts per season down to the mid-60 range.

Dirtbag pitchers: Carlos Zambrano is excluded from this group for being a true ace. This guy has some of the nastiest stuff around, is coming off a 19-win season, and has never won fewer than 13 games in a season as a full-time starter. The rest of the guys though, including Lilly, also include Jason Marquis, John Lieber, the seemingly immortal Ryan Dempster, and youngster Rich Hill, who started to make a name for himself in 2007. The Cubbies have a bullpen full of guys named Howry, Eyre, Hart, Lahey, and Wood (yes, that Wood, finally a full-time reliever) that you just know are going to get the job done.

Displaced superstar: Alfonso Soriano needs no introduction. Here's the bit you probably don't know, though. In addition to his frightening offensive numbers, Soriano can play some left field. He has 41 outfield assists in the last two seasons, cut his errors in half last season. And even though it's occasionally with a defensive error, this guy simply changes the course of ballgames.

Enigmatic and displaced potential superstar: Kosuke Fukudome has a name that may easily be mis-heard or mis-pronounced or mis-interpreted as a swear, and that's about all anyone actually knows about this guy. Maybe he's got a cannon like Alex Rios, maybe he's got wheels like a young Kenny Lofton, maybe he hits like Ichiro, maybe he throws, runs and hits like me. Who knows?

But as with all other things Cubbies this year, I'm excited to have 162 games to try to figure it out.

Sunday, March 23, 2008

The breakup

That’s it JP. This time you’ve gone too far. Again. For your latest transgression, we are officially over. My 1992/93 World Series videos and DVDs, all my Jays gear, it’s all getting buried in a box in the bottom of my closet. We’re done. You’ve taken away the last remaining reason I had to cheer for my favourite sports team ever.

Now all that’s left is an empty feeling, and you.

Goodbye Blue Jays, it was a great 20 years.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Silly Senators

So deadline day was fun. From trying to figure out just why Montreal accepted so little for Cristobal Huet, to trying to figure out how Pittsburgh got so badly-fleeced in the Marian Hossa trade, to linking Mats Sundin and Wade Redden for refusing to do the right thing, and waive their no-movement clauses. Riotous, all.

Then there was much speculation about winners, losers and in-betweens on deadline day, which led to speculation about which head coaches and general managers were running out of time with their current teams.

There was quite a bit of speculation during TSN’s broadcast Tuesday that Senators head coach John Paddock wouldn’t make it to the weekend with a job. Over here, we couldn’t see it happening.

Which leads us to this week’s biggest over-reaction: the Senators have indeed fired their first-year head coach after a mere 64 games.

Former head coach and current GM Bryan Murray will step back behind the Ottawa bench-- since he was so successful there last June.

The word is that Paddock lost the Sens’ dressing room, that the players weren’t willing to play for him anymore. And yes, Paddock allowed the goaltending situation to become the goaltending controversy, which probably has more to do with Ottawa’s struggles than anything, but Murray sewed the seeds.

All in all, the move reminds me of two things: a year ago, when the Habs were struggling, and underachieving, and everyone thought Guy Carbonneau had lost the room. New rumours popped up every day about Carbo’s impending axing, which never materialized, and now the Habs are nipping at the Sens’ heels. Alternately, it reminds me of the NBA’s Phoenix Suns making a move to get the rapidly aging and declining Shaquille O’Neal, sensing their championship window is slamming shut. Does the Sens’ brass feel the same way about their own championship window?

Either way, the smart money says the Senators are regretting this decision sooner than they’re celebrating it.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Deadline madness

I think it’s safe to say Tuesday’s trading deadline saw more than a flurry of activity. More like a blizzard. Let’s see how each team fared.

Anaheim made out pretty well, picking up a reliable backup goaltender in J-S Aubin from Los Angeles, and defenseman Marc-Andre Bergeron from the Islanders-- for only a pair of draft picks. While it’s generally accepted that Bergeron has no idea where his own blue line is, he provides a great point man for the Ducks’ power play. Bergeron lets the Ducks use Scott Neidermayer more sparingly, and lets Francois Beauchemin get back to doing what he does best: playing big, mean, physical defense. In other moves, the Ducks moved Brandon Bochenski to Nashville for futures, and sent Brandon Segal and a pick to the Lightning for Jay Leach.

Atlanta scored huge in the Marian Hossa sweepstakes, despite losing Hossa and Pascal Dupuis. Colby Armstrong and Erik Christensen can step right into the Thrashers’ top six, though neither player addresses the biggest problem Atlanta has had for years: the Thrashers still don’t have anyone to play with Ilya Kovalchuk. Maybe Angelo Esposito can become that player, but he probably has another full season before he’s NHL-ready. Maybe they’ll hit a home run with the first-round pick they got in the deal. In a minor move, the Thrashers sent Alex Giroux to Washington for Joe Motzko.

Boston stayed out of the fray, and will likely be better off for having done so.

Buffalo finally traded a soon-to-be free agent. In moving Brian Campbell to San Jose, the Sabres’ defense corps suffered a huge blow (is Jaro Spacek their new number one?), but the Sabres got good value in return. Not just a roster player in Steve Bernier, but a guy that can ride shotgun with Tom Vanek for several years to come. Bernier is off the pace many expected from him, but he’s a big body, with a big shot, and a big arsenal of moves.

Calgary had no assets to move, and they’ll stay the course this season. Should be an interesting summer…

Carolina’s big move was the Stillman-Corvo trade, but their small move to acquire Tuomo Ruutu from Chicago for Andrew Ladd was a good one for both teams. Both players are still young, and still have a lot of potential. The change of scenery could be a boon for both.

Chicago, as noted, made a nice deal to get Andrew Ladd from Carolina. It’s hard to believe they only got a sixth-round pick for Marty Lapointe though.

Colorado shuffled their blue line, sending Karlis Skrastins (a SWS favourite) and a pick to Florida for Ruslan Salei (another SWS favourite). Both teams get a good defenseman that may still have some game left. The Avs also sent a pile of conditional picks to Columbus for Adam Foote. Now if only they can lure Mike Ricci, Adam Deadmarsh and Patrick Roy out of retirement…

Columbus has faded from the Western playoff race a little, and moving Sergei Fedorov and Adam Foote just made sense. The conditional pick for Foote, and prospect Ted Ruth for Fedorov are both nice acquisitions heading into a potentially big summer for the Jackets.

Dallas landed one of the most coveted fish in the trade waters: former Conn Smythe winner Brad Richards. Richards becomes the likely successor to Mike Modano’s throne in Dallas, and should thrive in the Stars’ defensive system. The Stars also got Johan Holmqvist in the deal to back up Marty Turco. The Stars did send three roster players to Tampa, goalie Mike Smith, forwards Jussi Jokinen and Jeff Halpern, and a fourth-round pick.

Detroit scored Brad Stuart from Los Angeles for a pair of draft picks. Stuart is a slick puck-mover, and provides an extra offensive bump from the blue line while Nik Lidstrom is sidelined. Also, the last time Detroit got a defenseman from LA, it worked out pretty well (Mathieu Schneider). A good move for the Wings that adds some flexibility to their power play.

Edmonton is screwed.

Florida picked up Karlis Skrastins in the Ruslan Salei deal, and grabbed a pair of Maple Leafs for draft picks. Wade Belak and Chad Kilger may prove more valuable than the last pair of Leafs the Panthers picked up (Gary Roberts and Joe Nieuwendyk).

Los Angeles was expected to hold a more comprehensive firesale, but did well to add three draft picks for a backup goalie (J-S Aubin) and a defenseman that just wasn’t working out (Brad Stuart).

Minnesota decided Derek Boogaard just isn’t intimidating enough, so they sent a sixth-round pick to the Islanders for Chris Simon. If Simon has his act together, he will be a very valuable player in the post-season.

Montreal inexplicably traded Cristobal Huet to Washington for a second-round pick without acquiring a veteran backup. I’ve been trying to wrap my head around this trade since it broke, and I don’t think I’ll ever understand it.

Nashville scored perennial underachievers Brandon Bochenski from Nasvhille and Jan Hlavac from Tampa Bay for a pick and futures. The Predators are one of the teams on the Western Conference playoff bubble, and it’s hard to believe they didn’t make a more significant move (unless the team is trying to get out of their lease by icing the most unwatchable team in league history).

New Jersey made the first deal of the day, sending Cam Janssen (a SWS favourite) to St. Louis for Bryce Salvador. Any time you can send a borderline third-line forward out for a bona fide third defenseman, you’ve gotta make that deal. Very good deal for the Devils, whose back end is looking a lot more solid today.

The New York Islanders did well to pick up Rob Davison from San Jose for a pick. The Bay was never the right place for Davison, who is a young and serviceable defender with tremendous upside. The Isles also added draft picks from the Wild for Chris Simon and from Anaheim for Marc-Andre Bergeron. Even with Bergeron, the Isles had the league’s 26th-ranked power play. Moving him for any kind of an asset makes sense.

The New York Rangers completed the trifecta of five-player deals sending goaltending prospect Al Montoya and Marcel Hossa to Phoenix for Josh Gratton, Freddy Sjostrom, goaltending prospect David LeNeveu and a conditional pick. None of whom solve any of the Rangers’ problems. At absolute best, this was a lateral move by the Rangers. The Rangers did replace the seemingly black-listed Marek Malik by acquiring Christian Backman from St. Louis. Backman is yet to play a full season, but seems due to break out offensively at any time.

Ottawa’s lone deal was to acquire Marty Lapointe for a sixth-round pick. I really thought they’d try to move one of their goalies. This may be one of those incredibly astute moves that pays huge dividends in June. But then again, it may just be one of those deals where a contender picks up an aging vet that doesn’t really help at all.

Philadelphia made their move the night before the deadline, giving up way too much for Vinny Prospal. In 774 career games, Prospal has scored 175 goals and 540 points. Pretty good numbers at first glance. A closer look though, reveals Vinny loves playing in Tampa. In 386 games with the Lightning, Prospal has 108 goals and 326 points compared to just 67 goals and 214 points in 388 games with Philly, Ottawa, Florida and Anaheim. The Flyers sent a pick, and a very promising defensive prospect to Tampa, and got fleeced (probably payback for making Kevin Lowe look so bad in the Jason Smith trade).

Phoenix made just the big trade with the Rangers, and the future looks bright in the blue paint with Ilya Bryzgalov now, and Al Montoya in the future. Marcel Hossa probably won’t ever do anything in the desert, but neither did the three guys going the other way in this trade (Josh Gratton, Freddy Sjostrom, David Leneveu).

Pittsburgh gave up a lot in Erik Christensen, Colby Armstrong, Angelo Esposito and three draft picks to land Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis and Hal Gill, but the dividends should start rolling in soon. Gill is on his way back to being underrated, and beside Mark Eaton makes a nice pair of towering defensemen in Pittsburgh. Dupuis has never really found his stride, and Hossa is one of the game’s elite scorers. So for those keeping track at home, the Penguins now boast Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Hossa.

San Jose’s deal to get Brian Campbell is among the best trades ever. They paid a pretty steep price in Steve Bernier and a first-rounder, but Campbell is a very good defenseman with nearly limitless potential. Playing alongside Craig Rivet will team Campbell how to grow proper hockey hair, which is clearly the next step in his evolution as one of the league’s best blue liners. Also like Rivet, it will do Campbell a lot of good to get out of a tough hockey market, and into a fun-in-the-sun, we-love-everything-our-team-does market like San Jose. In the Rob Davison trade, the Sharks picked up their second seventh-round pick of the 2008 draft.

St. Louis unloaded defensemen Christian Backman and Bryce Salvador for a pick and Cam Janssen. The Blues’ defense has not been good for quite some time now, and it’s pretty amazing their defensemen always draw so much attention at the deadline. Look for the Blues to inch closer to the lottery with each passing day for the rest of this season.

Tampa Bay is also looking forward to the lottery. I have no idea what Jay Feaster is doing, and despite the 2004 Stanley Cup win, I don’t think he knows what he’s doing either. That said, getting Mike Smith from Dallas was a great move, and getting Jeff Halpern (finally someone to play defense) and Jussi Jokinen thrown into the deal for Brad Richards and Johan Holmqvist was equally good. Smith should stabilize the goaltending, Halpern will help the penalty kill, and Jokinen could really break out playing with a Vinny Lecavalier, but it’s still tough to see the Bolts going anywhere.

Toronto can thank Mats Sundin for their lackluster day. That said, hats off to Cliff Fletcher for getting four draft picks for Wade Belak, Chad Kilger and Hal Gill. Dear Mats: next time the Leafs are trying to move a bunch of guys with no-movement clauses, keep it to yourself that you’re not waiving yours so maybe Darcy or Bryan will waive theirs.

Vancouver made a minor move with Washington, swapping third liners Matt Cooke and Matt Pettinger. Pettinger doesn’t do much for Vancouver that their 15 other third liners aren’t.

Washington gets SWS’s nod as the official winner of deadline day. The Capitals picked up an all-star goalie in Cristobal Huet-- for a second-round pick, Sergei Fedorov for a prospect, and upgraded one of their third-liners. Huet is good enough to carry just about any team to the playoffs, and automatically gives Washington the best goaltending in the Southeast. Fedorov should find qualities playing beside Alex Ovechkin that resemble those offered by a fountain of youth. And Matt Cooke allows the Caps to stop sending Donald Brashear onto the ice. Despite their current five-point deficit (with two games in hand), the Caps will win the Southeast.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Tuesday evening grab-bag

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! Way to go, New York. Who needs a 5-0 lead anyway?

Sorry, had to get that out of the way. Three things today:

The 2009 World Baseball Classic has confirmed all 16 participating teams, including Canada. That’s good-enough news. Even better is the rumour the Rogers Centre in Toronto will host preliminary-round games!

While Major League Baseball’s February-to-November schedule (including spring training and the World Series) is not particularly accommodating to a major-league level international tournament, it’s nice to see the Major Leagues seem to be committed to making the Classic work. I got a real kick out of it the first time around, and I’ll be sure to enjoy it again next spring. If some of the games are going to be in Toronto, I know I’d like to be there too.

It’s going to be great for baseball in Canada. Grassroots baseball in this country took a big hit with the strike in 1994. Coming off back-to-back titles by exciting and likeable Blue Jays teams, and with a bright future in Montreal, the rug got yanked out from under baseball in Canada. But we’ve produced some very talented players in recent years: enough, even, to field a competitive team at the World Baseball Classic. A strong season from the managerially-crippled Blue Jays in 2008, coupled with a strong showing by the Canadian side in Toronto next spring, just may help baseball find its way back to the spotlight in this country, and that’s a good thing.

Another good thing: the return of Indy cars! Today, the Indy Racing League and Champ Car World Series announced a tentative agreement to merge. Years ago, there was just one circuit, then open-wheel racing split into the crappy IRL, and crappier Champ Car series (which, seemingly, has had as many names in the span as Britney Spears has had mental breakdowns in the last six months). I’m not a big fan of auto racing, but open-wheel racing is pretty bad-ass. And one marginally-good circuit is better for fans, than two crappy circuits.

And lastly, the first big trade of the NHL trading season came down last week when Ottawa picked up Cory Stillman from Carolina. I don’t have much to say about that trade as it seems to have been a lateral move for Ottawa. I will offer some thoughts on Tuesday’s trade between Los Angeles and Philadelphia. This was a good deal for Philly. Kimmo Timonen has not been the guy the Flyers thought they were getting, but having the slick, puck-moving Jaro Modry to back him up in a fourth-d role should help both guys. Modry’s lost a step by any measure, and is not particularly effective in his own end anymore. But he still makes a good first pass, and is a nice addition to the Flyers’ ailing defense corps, for a relatively small price (a third-round pick). Good move by the Flyers today.

Tuesday saw a bunch of big wins for fans of the Montreal Canadiens, international and Canadian baseball, open-wheel auto racing, and the Philadelphia Flyers (save for that OT loss to Ottawa that stretched their losing skid to eight games).

From here on out, full trade deadline coverage is in full effect.

Monday, February 04, 2008

Most Valuable Prettyboy??

I’m all for quarterback worship, and I’m all for just giving the Super Bowl-winning quarterback the MVP award from an aesthetic position. Typically, a team’s quarterback is their most visible and recognizable player, so it makes sense.

But Sunday night, it did not make sense to name Eli Manning the Super Bowl MVP, unless the P suddenly stands for “prettyboy.” And Super Bowl XLII was not, as NFL.com’s Vic Carucci called it, Eli’s “coronation.”

Yes, Eli threw for eight yards more than Peyton Manning did as last year’s Super Bowl MVP (255-to-247); and yes, he crushed Tom Brady’s 145-yard performance as Super Bowl XXXVI MVP; but his 19/34, and two touchdowns matches up well against Brett Favre’s 14/27 for 246 yards and two majors in Super Bowl XXXI-- and Favre lost out to a kick returner!

So why didn’t the voters give some love to the Giants’ defensive line, and defensive front seven?

They got to Brady for five sacks, and another dozen-and-a-half knockdowns and hurries. Brady, not exactly nimble, hadn’t been sacked five times in a game since September of 2003. En route to placing three offensive linemen in the Pro Bowl, the Patriots allowed Brady to be sacked just 24 times in their first 18 games this season.

The Giants held the Patriots to a mere 45 rushing yards, including three Pats rushes that were stopped for a loss. New England averaged 119 rushing yards per game heading into the Super Bowl, including 147 yards per game in their first two playoff games.

And of course, the Patriots were the overall offensive leaders in 2007, setting a single-season points record, as well as Brady and Randy Moss setting new individual touchdown records.

This was one of the most dominant offenses the NFL has ever seen, and the MVP voters couldn’t find one defensive player worthy of the honour? Even after the Giants came up with the game-sealing sack? A sack that seemed almost impossible to consider given the Pats’ play this season.

The Super Bowl MVP voters screwed this up worse than the Academy screwed up giving Sean Penn the best actor award for Mystic River (Johnny Depp’s first effort as Jack Sparrow should have won).

Oh well, one more reason to dislike the NFL.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Gravey train

Go Rangers!

During Brian Leetch's number-retirement speech, Leetch let the cat out of the bag, and told his former teammate, and an all-time Sports With Steve legend, Adam Graves, that Graves' number 9 will be the next to hang from the rafters at Madison Square Garden.

Of late, number-retirements have been based almost solely on stats. Number retirement isn't about the stats. It's about what a player means to the team and the team's fans. Nobody is ever going to be blown away by Graves' 616 points in 1152 games, or even the 507 in 772 with the blueshirts.

But based on stats, and judging by Wayne Gretzky, Gordie Howe, Mark Messier, Steve Yzerman, or Mario Lemiuex-like standards, one can make a case Maurice Richard's 965 points in 978 games shouldn't be enough for a number in the rafters.

No, Graves wasn't as culturally important, and no, Graves wasn't as purely talented, and no, Graves didn't raise the bar, and no, the NHL doesn't hand out the Adam Graves award annually. Heck, Graves never even had a real nickname.

He was just one of those guys. He played every game like it may be his last. He set a Rangers single-season goal record, and was named team MVP in both 1993, and their 1994 Stanley Cup season.

He wasn't the biggest name when he was a Ranger, and he wasn't the best player. But he was beloved. And it's a great day for fans of underdogs, fans of the good guy, and fans of guys that give it their all.

Now if only we could get the Rags to hang Brad Park's number...