Thursday, September 20, 2007

One step forward, two steps back; just life in the Central

While Columbus continues to build, St. Louis and Chicago continue to rebuild, and Nashville starts to rebuild, the Detroit Red Wings will once again be the biggest fish in the small Central Division tank. If St. Louis, Chicago or Nashville gets hot and starts to pile up points within the division, they could all make a run at the post-season, but it’s not likely. The Central will probably only send the Red Wings to the playoffs this year.

DETROIT RED WINGS
New gear: No significant changes in the Motor City. The Wings will look as they always have, with two minor exceptions. They’ve moved the captain’s C to the other side. It’s a nice touch, and something they’ve done in the past. So no one can get too upset about that. They’ve also gone to straight lines in the elbow piping, where there used to be a little half-moon before. In six months, no one will miss the half-moon.

New year: The Wings head into the 2008 season facing more uncertainty than usual. Gone are Robert Lang, Mathieu Schneider and Danny Markov, with no immediate replacements lined up. Newcomer Brian Rafalski brings a winning pedigree from New Jersey, and either paired with Nicklas Lidstrom, or anchoring a second unit with Chris Chelios, should be able to help his new squad maintain a level of defensive excellence.

Up front, the Wings feel the oft-injured Lang will not be missed. Henrik Zetterberg has emerged as one of the league’s top two-way threats, and he will be asked to produce at a pace near Pavel Datsyuk’s. Datsyuk is coming off his second-consecutive season with 87 points. The truly pleasantly surprised aspect is the fact Datsyuk’s plus/minus rating has improved from minus-2 before the lockout, to plus-26 two seasons ago, to plus-36 last season. These two players are the key to any success the Wings hope to have in the near future.

In Lang’s absence, the Wings will look to Jiri Hudler to finally blossom into the offensive force he’s been at every other level. The diminutive Czech recorded 25 points and a plus-16 rating while averaging just 10 minutes of ice time last season, his first full season in the NHL.

Dan Cleary was a nice surprise for the Wings last season, and they’d like to hope he can pull another 40-point rabbit from his hat. Meanwhile, Thomas Holmstrom and Mikael Samuelsson will continue to be invaluable contributors.

Dominik Hasek appears ready to return for another run with the Wings. The importance of his ability to work with the revamped defense corps in front of him can’t be over-stated. If Hasek can’t play to the level he did last season, the Wings may be in trouble this year.

Outlook: With the fire sale in Nashville, the Red Wings no longer face a real threat in the Central Division. The Wings have long feasted on their weaker Central Division brethren and this season should be no exception. Frankly, heading into the season, the Wings’ schedule reads like that of a top-25 NCAA football team’s. 3rd in West, 102 points.

NASHVILLE PREDATORS
New gear: These new jerseys have taken a lot of heat in the areas of the Internet I inhabit, but I think most of it is unfounded (aside from the mockery of the white blocks at the bottom of the sleeves on the dark jersey). The Preds have kept the silver stripe running the length of the sleeve, which looks great on both the home and road unis. And they were subtle with their use of the piping running up the chest. Full marks.

New year: New goalie, new captain, new top defenseman and a new top scorer are four things the Nashville Predators will have this season. The departures of Tomas Vokoun, Kimmo Timonen and Paul Kariya may signal the end of the Predators window to win a Stanley Cup. But it’s not the end of the world in the Music City. Not by a long shot.

Probable new captain David Legwand collected a career-high 63 points last season, with the possibility of reaching even loftier heights this season. Jason Arnott and J.P. Dumont now have a full season in coach Barry Trotz’s system under their belts, and should contribute even more this season. Martin Erat’s career-high 57 points last season came despite missing 14 games. And Alexander Radulov’s development should carry him into the 60-point range this season.

On the back end, we all knew Dan Hamhuis, Ryan Suter and Shea Weber were the future of the franchise on defense. Their time has now come, and there’s no reason to think they won’t be ready. Marek Zidlicky is still in the mix, and this group should remain among the best in the league.

The Preds have some new veterans in the fold, all of whom will be expected to contribute in different ways. Martin Gelinas will be expected to produce 50 points or so. Radek Bonk is still a very valuable shut-down centre, and he anchored a very good Montreal penalty kill during the last two seasons. And Greg de Vries will be asked to help make sure the youth isn’t over their head, or pushed around, on defense.

The biggest impact will come from Chris Mason. Though not a newcomer, Mason is new to the starting role, and doesn’t have a lot of backup (which reeks of Dumont to Montreal for Halak or Huet). Mason performed very well filling in for an injured Vokoun last season, but it remains to be seen if he can handle full-time duty over the course of a full season.

Outlook: It’s basically all going to fall on Mason’s shoulders, which is wildly unfair. Even if this team can get past the ownership distractions, they’ll have plenty to deal with on the ice. The sky in Nashville isn’t falling quite so badly as everyone wants to think it is. But clearly, this team faces a much lower ceiling of expectations this year. 9th in West, 90 points.

ST. LOUIS BLUES
New gear: They still use the nicest shade of blue known to man, and from a distance these jerseys aren’t so bad. But God forbid you ever run into someone wearing one on the street. Some teams (like Nashville) made great use of the piping, and some teams (like the Blues) did not. That said, this could have gone much, much worse.

New Year: First of all, I love the “We want you back” ticket campaign, and I love the “Whatever it takes” slogan. And you’ve gotta figure any team that brings Paul Kariya in during the off-season should see an improvement the next season. With Kariya, Keith Tkachuk and Martin Rucinsky, the Blues have a strong left side.

Doug Weight and Petr Cajanek are solid centre men, while David Backes opened some eyes during his rookie campaign last season. Assuming Backes and Lee Stempniak (quietest 52 points in league history) continue to develop, the Blues will have some offensive firepower that other teams will have to respect.

The blues even have a pretty sturdy blue line corps with Eric Brewer, Christian Backman, Barret Jackman and Jay McKee (when healthy). This group made great strides last season after Andy Murray took over as head coach, and there’s no reason to think they won’t continue to improve.

The Blues are backstopped by Manny Legace again, but the goaltending competition will be wide open in camp. Any and all of Legace, Hannu Toivonen, Jason Bacashihua, Curtis Sanford and Marek Schwarz will see time between the pipes in St. Louis this season in an effort to find a full-time puck stopper.

Outlook: The Blues are a long shot to make the post-season, and will probably give many of their interesting prospects a look throughout the season. This team wasn’t a whole lot better after Murray took over the coaching job, but they were more consistent. If the Blues continue to play consistent hockey, they could finish near the top of the bottom of the pile. 10th in West, 90 points.

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
New gear: Like the Red Wings, yet another lesson in “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The Blackhawks have always had, and probably will always have the most perfect uniforms in all of hockey. Even if the Hawks have drawn fewer fans in the last few seasons than the AHL Wolves have, the city would probably riot if they’d changed this 40-year old logo.

New Year: I see a big jump in points for Chicago this year, even though that won’t translate to a big jump in the standings. After a stunning performance at the World Junior Championship last season, Toews had a stellar finish to the NCAA season (33 points in 21 games), then put on an eye-opening performance at the World Championships in May. It was the kind of performance you simply can’t ignore. Toews is the future of the Blackhawks, and that future starts now.

Toews will likely be joined by June’s first-overall pick Patrick Kane, and perhaps the Hawks’ first-round pick from 2005 Jack Skille, as the Hawks look to fast-track the development of these promising youngsters. Doing so helped with young defensemen Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook and Cam Barker, all of whom were top-four defensemen last season. Keith was Chicago’s ice-time leader, logging 23:36 a night, and also finished with an even plus-minus rating. With James Wisniewski and Dustin Byfuglien filling out the top five, the Hawks are relatively set on the back end.

The key is getting offensive help for Martin Havlat. The flashy Czech had 57 points in 56 games last season. With no outside forces, a full and healthy season from Havlat is worth three or four wins. With Robert Lang in the fold, the Hawks have a veteran with lots of playoff experience in Detroit, and a valuable asset in the dressing room. With Sergei Samsonov, the Hawks have a guy that will be as good or bad as he wants to be. If he’s motivated, he could help lead a very surprising turnaround for Chicago this year.

More likely though, is the chance Samsonov teams up with goalie Nik Khabibulin to sit around enjoying all the money they have, and not paying attention to the game they’re playing to get that cash. Much like Samsonov, Khabibulin is as good as he wants to be.

Outlook: If Toews, Kane and Skille all make the team out of camp, and if they can form a solid second line, and if Samsonov and Lang have it in them, and if Khabibulin plays out of his mind, the Blackhawks could make the playoffs. This team is starting to pile up prospects just like their opponent in the 1992 Stanley Cup final recently did, and may have an equally dramatic turnaround, just not this season. 11th in West, 85 points.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
New gear: Gone are the silly bee mascot, and the CBJ logo. The new logo, which had been used recently as the alternate logo, gives a hefty nod to Ohio’s status as the birthplace of flight, is excellent. But it just doesn’t seem to synch up with the new jersey design. These new threads are sharp, but I yearn for the Jackets’ striping of old.

New year: Considering the Jackets’ 33 wins in 2007 were something of an overachievement, and the roster is returning pretty well intact, it’s hard to imagine the Jackets getting out of the Western Conference cellar this season.

Newcomers Mike Peca, Kris Beech and Jan Hejda are normally the kinds of players a team adds when they’re close to competing. If Peca can stay healthy, he can log third-line minutes and kill penalties with some effectiveness. But to ask Peca to carry any of the offensive load is to ask too much.

Beech is another solid defensive forward, but he notched a mere 26 points in Washington last season, playing either with Alex Ovechkin, or against other team’s secondary defensive units. Beech isn’t exactly Art Ross material. And Hejda spent part of last season in the minor leagues.

The Jackets still need Ron Hainsey and Rostislav Klesla to log more than 20 minutes a night, and Adam Foote is well past his prime. That didn’t stop him from approaching 25 minutes a game last season. Columbus doesn’t have a single blue-chip blue line prospect. Until the defense gets better, this team will continue to spin its wheels.

At the draft this past June, the Jackets selected power forward Jakub Voracek, who cashed in on a tremendous rookie year in the QMJHL. Voracek could become a player in the Peter Forsberg mould, or he will regress after one year in junior hockey. He’ll get every chance to make the big club out of camp, and if he does, he’ll be asked to take on a big offensive role. Perhaps even playing alongside David Vyborny, and seeing top minutes.

If he’d been teammates with the Rocket, Rick Nash’s Rocket Richard Trophy win couldn’t seem to have been longer ago. Nash must either find a way to become a consistent 80-point producer, or become a defensive stalwart and team leader with second-line scoring ability.

Outlook: The fact Jody Shelley still has a spot on this team speaks volumes to the overall depth the Jackets have. Another 30-win season isn’t out of the question. But the bigger question is whether or not the next 30-win season will happen in the next five years. 14th in West, 73 points

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