Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Northeast regaining momentum

After a brief run as the toughest division in hockey, the Northeast Division has come back to earth the past couple seasons. The Senators and Sabres still have the ability to blow most of their opponents away, while the Canadiens and Leafs will prove to be scrappy, hard-to-beat teams once again this season. Add the Claude Julien-led Bruins into the mix, and this group of teams may once again wear the crown of toughest division in hockey very soon.

OTTAWA SENATORS
New gear: Did they unveil the practice jerseys? There’s a fine line between a clean style, and no style. Worse, the players look fat when seen straight-on in these things. And don’t even get me started on the new number font. The logo update is nice, but the “gold semicircle with laurel leaves” doesn’t anchor the logo. It moves the whole thing off-centre and seems out of place. But that new shoulder patch kicks ass.

New Year: The Senators got creamed in the Final, and they had a rocky off-season, in which Wade Redden was nearly traded, and there was an ugly management shake-up which lead to a coaching change. New head coach John Paddock is a long-time company man, and coached many current Senators while they toiled in the American League.

One such player in Jason Spezza. Paddock is largely responsible for getting Spezza to find his way defensively, which has led to Spezza’s offensive outburst. Spezza notched 87 points in 67 games, and alongside Dany Heatley, the pair should combine for well over 200 points in their sleep. Daniel Alfredsson is still a go-to guy, and Mike Fisher is due for a monstrous season.

The key for the Senators this season will be shoring up their blue line, which seems like an odd thing to say about Ottawa. Redden had a very sub-par season, as did big-ticket free agent Joe Corvo. Christoph Schubert and Lawrence Nycholat will battle for the final defense spot. Schubert is a fairly steady defenseman, but splitting time at forward through much of last season had to hamper his development.

That said, Andrei Meszaros, Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips really took their games to a new level last season. Meszaros matured immensely in the post-season, while Volchenkov’s inhuman shot-blocking was perhaps the second-biggest reason the Senators played for the Cup. Chris Phillips’ evolution into an absolute stud defenseman was an equally large factor. Entering his 10th season in the NHL, Phillips is finally the defenseman the hockey world thought he could be.

The single biggest reason the Senators marched to the Final is, of course, Ray Emery. I remember seeing Emery give up nine goals in an elimination game in the 2003 Calder Cup playoffs, and thinking he’d never become the goalie we saw in the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final last spring. He was absolutely lights-out in those first two games, and was looking at becoming a potential Conn Smythe win before he and his team imploded.

Outlook: Despite some off-season losses (Peter Schaefer to Boston, Mike Comrie to the Islanders and Tom Preissing to LA), this team is still loaded, and still the class of the Eastern Conference. This team will not have put the memories of the Final behind them. The embarrassment they suffered then will drive them to finish the job this season. 1st in East, 106 points.

BUFFALO SABRES
New gear: The Sabres’ new jerseys from last season were designed with the Rbk system in mind. The translation has been essentially seamless, and now that the design has been applied to the proper cut, they look a little better.

New Year: Yes, the Sabres lost their co-captains to free agency this summer. Yes, it’s going to be hard to replace Daniel Briere’s 95 points. No, you can’t replace the heart of a champion like Chris Drury has. But…

Thomas Vanek led the team with 43 goals, and he’s still kickin’ around. Maxim Afinogenov had 61 points in just 56 games Jason Pominville erupted with a 34-goal season, and the Sabres will bring back the eight defensemen that saw the most ice time last season, including Brian Campbell. He’s a guy that personally ripped the hearts from chests of fans all over the league. For a defenseman with 48 points, he sure didn’t give much back the other way. Campbell’s plus-28 rating was second on the team to only Derek Roy (plus-37, if you need him).

Lindy Ruff is still behind the bench. Ryan Miller is still between the pipes. These guys are in good shape still. Ales Kotalik was a big contributor last season, shelling out 38 points in 66 games, and Drew Stafford made the most of a mid-season call-up, banging out 27 points in 41 games. Both of those guys represent 50-point campaigns over a full season.

Outlook: It’s hard to imagine this team simply falling out of contention. Even if all of those gaudy offensive numbers last season represented peak performances, they still represent eight or nine players in the 50 to 85-point range. This team still has big guns, and if they can move Jaroslav Spacek for a Shawn Thornton on Chris Clark type of leader, they’ll be laughing. 5th in East, 100 points.

MONTREAL CANADIENS
New gear: Another classic remains mostly untouched by the devil-spawn that call Rbk’s design team home. The slight tweak to the collar is excellent, and the only questions remain regarding the look of the numbers.

New year: I’m almost certainly over-valuing my beloved former Bulldogs, but that’s what happens when they win the Calder Cup. Until the end of training camp, it will be tough to tell exactly which direction the Canadiens are heading in this season. And even after camp, it will be interesting to see the way the lineup evolves throughout the year.

But here’s what we know: a full season from Cristobal Huet would have given the Canadiens a playoff berth last season, and he seems to be healthy heading into the new season, so optimism should be higher around this team.

Scoring may remain a problem with this team, especially with Sheldon Souray’s off-season departure. However, Tomas Plekanec and Chris Higgins made great strides last year, and the team will count on both of them for added production this time around. And anything more than 47 points out of Alex Kovalev will go a long way, too.

Mike Komisarek began to really blossom into a top-flight shut-down defenseman last season, and he will have to continue that upward trend this year, as he and Andrei Markov will be recognized as the top defensive pair. They’ll do it without Souray to draw attention away from them, too. The play of the Habs three-through-seven defensemen will determine their fate this season.

Outlook: With at least two forward positions, a defensive spot, and the backup goaltending job all up for grabs in camp, this should be an exciting September in Montreal. With management’s confidence in their prospects growing, very few roster spots are guaranteed, which should keep this team hungry and competitive every night, something they weren’t last season. A full season of Huet gets this team to the playoffs. 7th in East, 96 points.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
New gear: Just a little too simple, and a little too blue. My goodness. I saw a comparison to a baby’s sleeper, and I can’t disagree with that. But hey, even if the shirts looked great, the players would find a way to make them look bad.

New Year: What could possibly be new in Leaf land? It’s the start of a new season, which means, in Toronto, the start of another round of “let’s have a parade.” All the key players remain in place. Former coach Pat Quinn’s shadow continues to loom large, general manager John Ferguson Jr. still looks shell-shocked, Mats Sundin is still the captain, Bryan McCabe still gets all the accolades while Tomas Kaberle does all the heavy lifting, Darcy Tucker is Darcy Tucker, and everyone is sure this will be Alex Ponikarovsky or Nik Antropov’s year.

Sometimes, the old saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Newcomers in the Leaf lineup include a trio of questionable players. Much like last summer’s additions of Andrew Raycroft, Pavel Kubina and Hal Gill, this year’s trio will face a truck-load of scrutiny in Toronto (while McCabe somehow escapes the ire of fans).

Mark Bell is already well behind the 8-ball, having been hit with a jail sentence and suspension shortly after arriving in Toronto. Vesa Toskala is being groomed to force Raycroft (of a team-record 37 wins last season) out the door in a trade that will haunt the Leafs for a long, long time (this has Raycroft to Chicago for Patrick Sharp, or LA for Brian Willsie written all over it).

And Jason Blake is essentially being asked to be that missing piece. The gritty warrior with a great scoring touch (far be it for me to compliment him, but isn’t that Tucker’s game?), heart-on-his sleeve leader in the wings, waiting to take over the captaincy from one of the team’s most beloved players without missing a beat.

And my personal favourite part of the Leafs season: a whole season from Andy “Whatpositiondoyouplay?” Wozniewski.

Outlook: The Leafs fell one point shy of the post-season last year, despite shaky goaltending, shaky scoring, and a long line to the trainer’s office. The figure to be in for a battle again this season, and it will be interesting to see how Raycroft handles his second-straight season of second-guessing and goaltending controversies. There’s almost no way this goes as well as Ferguson hopes. 12th in East, 91 points.

BOSTON BRUINS
New gear: The Bruins were first out of the gates, in an apparent attempt to dissuade the fears of fans worried about the new look of classic logos and designs within the new Rbk Edge uniform system. And it worked like a charm. The new Bruins gear looks so good, I modeled my ball hockey team’s uniforms after the Bs’ template.

New year: Counting the uniforms, a new head coach, a new goalie, a solid new left winger, and a steal with the eighth pick in the draft, the Bruins had a pretty good summer.

Claude Julien made overachievers out of the Montreal Canadiens before the lockout, and kept the good ship Devils righted before his tenure was unceremoniously ended in the swamps of Jersey. All signs suggest he can get the Bruins’ ship righted in good time, too.

Manny Fernandez fell out of favour in Minnesota, but coupled with Tim Thomas, could form a formidable goaltending duo at the Garden. The play of Boston’s netminders will be the biggest factor in the Bruins’ fortunes this season. And while Fernandez has his shining moments, it’s worth noting he lost the starting job in Minnesota twice in the last three seasons.

Peter Schaefer was stolen from Ottawa during the summer, and should be an impact player. Together, Schaefer and PJ Axelsson should be one of the league’s top penalty-killing pairs, and given a bump in playing time, Schaefer’s point production should increase as well.

The Bruins drafted Zach Hamill with their first pick in the draft, he was the Western League’s top scorer last season, and will be given every chance to make the team out of camp. He and Phil Kessel form the nucleus of the Bruins’ youth movement.

The Bruins’ defense corps, led by Zdeno Chara, will have to improve if Boston is to have any chance of making the playoffs this season. This will be head coach Julien’s top priority moving forward. After he gets the defense in order, though, he’ll have to coax some offense out of the forwards. Only Marc Savard and Patrice Bergeron offered any real production last season. Marco Sturm and Glen Murray are expected to serve up more than 45 points each.

Outlook: Despite their strong off-season, it’s doubtful the Bruins have improved enough to make a serious run at the 2008 playoffs. A lottery pick at next June’s draft is much more likely. 15th in East, 78 points.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hey, I thought the Leafs looked pretty good last night :)
Despite the fact that Mats Sundin (superstar) was not playing. I can't wait to watch again tonight against Phoenix...we will see how your prediction ends up at the end of the year. My prediction is Playoff Bound !!!