Saturday, September 30, 2006

NHL preview - Southeast Division

Unlike the NFL, where I try to rock and roll with as little info as possible, when it comes to hockey I devour pretty well everything. For a couple years now I’ve been able to name almost every player in the league. Such expansive knowledge has led to some bloated NHL write-ups in the past, usually averaging more than a page per team. I’m going to try my best to keep it concise here and give you the things you need to know to be ready for hockey season. So here we go, a division a day until Thursday. Season starts Wednesday, and hopefully your fantasy draft is a week into the season like the one I’m in, as I’ll be offering a fantasy sleeper and a promising rookie for each team in the league. Today, we start with the defending champs and the Southeast Division.

Division overview.

First thing I have to say is that I love this division. A couple years ago after way too many drinks I said this division was only a couple years away from being a powerhouse. Last I checked, the last two Stanley Cup winners call the Southeast home and for the first time in history, we may be looking at four playoff teams from the Southeast. Teams are listed in order of projected standings, playoff teams are in bold.

Carolina Hurricanes

There is no reason the defending champs can’t win this division. They lost three key players from last season in Matt Cullen, Aaron Ward and Martin Gerber, but feel they’ve found competent replacements in newcomer Scott Walker, and homegrown Frantisek Kaberle and Cam Ward. Walker is an excellent pick-up from Nashville. He brings leadership and underappreciated skill. Kaberle is on the shelf to start the year. Coupled with Aaron Ward’s departure, many of the Canes’ defensemen will be playing big minutes for the first time in their careers. Their play will determine the fate of this team. Cam Ward was lights out in the Canes’ run to the Cup, and there is no reason to believe he can’t follow in the footsteps of other goalies that have won the Conn Smyth Trophy as a rookie, only to put together hall of fame careers after.

Fantasy Sleeper: Scott Walker had 16 points in 33 games in Nashville last year. With a new centre and more aggressive offense, he should eclipse Cullen’s 49 that he’s in town to replace.

Rookie Watch: Barring injury, the Hurricanes don’t figure to ice many rookies this year after having five players play out their Calder eligibility last season.

Atlanta Thrashers

Atlanta finished last season two wins shy of the playoffs, and another spring in Atlanta without playoff hockey will start an avalanche of rolling heads from front office. Assuming goalie Kari Lehtonen is in better shape and plays more than 38 games, there is no reason to believe the Thrashers can’t compete for the top spot in the division. Losing top centre Marc Savard and his 97 points hurts, but the Thrashers have lots of offense coming from Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk. Once again, the onus falls on the defense to get better. This is a sound group led by the undervalued Niclas Havelid. Steve McCarthy brings some offensive pop in his first full season in Atlanta, while Greg DeVries is going to be expected to improve. The biggest upgrade on defense is the arrival of former Duck Vitaly Vishnevski. The hard-hitting Russian will be asked to clear the ice in front of Lehtonen and be an imposing presence in the Thrashers’ end of the rink.

Fantasy Sleeper: McCarthy had 10 points in 16 games with Atlanta last year, compared to six points in 51 games with Vancouver. He’ll quarterback one of Atlanta’s power play units.

Rookie Watch: Braydon Coburn had a very good year in the American League last year and is expected to make the team out of camp as a top six defenseman.

Tampa Bay Lightning

With Brad Richards, Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St-Louis, the Lightning have a trio of forwards at the top most teams should envy. Beyond that are the question marks, and the reasons Tampa Bay will likely miss the playoffs this season. While neither Sean Burke nor John Grahame were particularly adept between the pipes last year, Marc Denis is relatively untested after years of playing in Columbus. This will be his first shot at being in any kind of a spotlight. Filip Kuba is a hard-hitting defenseman that eats minutes like children eat candy, and he’ll quickly become a fan favourite, while helping the departed Pavel Kubina become a distant memory. Cap mis-management will ultimately be the result of further downfall in Tampa, but for now, it’s simply a matter of too much youth. The defense is thin, as is the fourth line and secondary scoring. The playoffs may be too much to ask of this group.

Fantasy Sleeper: No real sleepers here, though one can expect Martin St-Louis to improve on his 61 points from last season.

Rookie Watch: Nikita Alexeev appears to be the only rookie with a real shot of making the club. The talented Russian is big, but doesn’t play the game the way a 6’5”, 230-pounder should.

Florida Panthers

First and foremost, the Bertuzzi-for-Luongo deal was great for this team. Todd Bertuzzi is a big, mean, menacing forward that can control every aspect of the game so long as he’s motivated. That Bertuzzi was on display during a home-and-home series between Vancouver and San Jose that ultimately decided each team’s playoff fate last season. With that Bertuzzi every night, the Panthers are going to make some noise. Losing Roberto Luongo hurts, but the Panthers were in more desperate need of a game-breaking skater than a gave-saving goalie. Bryan Allen and Alex Auld also came over from Vancouver, and should shine in south Florida. Ruslan Salei is a hard-hitting minute muncher and helps the Panthers blue line fill out nicely. The forward group is still a little thin, but the addition of Bertuzzi means fewer top-defensive pairings for youngsters like Stephen Weiss, Nathan Horton and Rostislav Olesz.

Fantasy Sleeper: Olesz scored 21 points in 59 games as a rookie, and could thrive in his second NHL season.

Rookie Watch: Anthony Stewart will start the year in the American League, but the demotion shouldn’t last long. Look for Stewart to be lighting NHL lamps by Halloween.

Washington Capitals

Without going too Alex Ovechkin crazy… Alex Ovechkin is the greatest thing that ever happened to this franchise. Can you imagine if this kid had played with Adam Oates when he was in Washington? It’s not impossible to imagine Oates getting in some skating drills and trying to make a comeback to play with Ovechkin. The biggest moves the Caps made in the off-season were A: losing captain Jeff Halpern to free agency; B: losing heart-and-soul winger Brian Willsie to free agency; C: adding defenseman Brian Pothier through free agency; and D: trading for winger Richard Zednik. Zednik is a fantastically gifted player, but has never been able to play at a high level with consistency. Alongside Ovechkin, he could post career-high numbers. The Caps will ice essentially the same team that landed them in the draft lottery last year, and they’ll be headed back to the lottery this year.

Fantasy Sleeper: Either Richard Zednik or…

Rookie Watch: Rookie Tomas Fleischmann scored 63 points (33 goals) in 57 games with Hershey of the American League last year.

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