Tuesday, October 02, 2007

NHL predictions

Alright, I got as bored of writing the long-winded, and only half-as-in-depth-as-I'd-have-liked team previews, so here's the meat of it. Final standings, 1 thru 15 in each conference.

In the East...
1A/1B: Ottawa/Pittsburgh
Essentially, these two teams will be interchangeable at the top of the Eastern Conference standings. They'll probably flip-flop all season long, and I picked Ottawa as the de facto number one before Ray Emery got hurt. Let's see if Martin Gerber can keep Ottawa in the same stratosphere as Pittsburgh.

3: Florida

The Panthers will have fewer points (think 10-12) than the fourth-place Rangers, but somebody's gotta win the Southeast, and I know I posted a couple days ago the Canes would, but it turns out I like Florida's offensive mix, and I love Florida's goalie. They're a lot like the Rangers-lite, good offense, shady defense, all-world goalie.

4: Rangers

Fourth is the low-end of the Rangers' potential this season. Hank Lundqvist wants to play more, and if he's healthy, there's not stopping this team. The Canadian in me hopes Lundqvist's career-path mimics Tommy Salo's, and Lundqvist flames out at the 2010 Olympics. Until then, we're all just going to have to deal with the Rangers.

5: Buffalo

Drury, Briere, blah blah blah. Lindy Ruff doesn't want to hear any whining about it, and this team won't whine about it. Instead, watch Tom Vanek, Ryan Miller, Max Afinogenov, Derek Roy, Jason Pominville, Brian Campbell, Drew Stafford (OK, everyone except Jaro Spacek) stick it to everyone that's writing them off.

6/7: Carolina/Tampa Bay

Both teams can score, both teams start the year without their number-one defenseman, both teams have questions in goal. Both teams are getting by right now on reputations built in 2004 and 2006.

8: New Jersey

Really? You expect anyone to bet against a Martin Brodeur-backed team making the playoffs?

9/10/11/12: Montreal/Atlanta/Islanders/Toronto

One or more of these teams will bump Tampa or Carolina out of that seventh spot. Montreal has a lot of youth, and they're just a straight-up wildcard this season; Atlanta has two of the game's biggest offensive guns, and a great goalie; the Islanders are a pleasure to watch, and you gotta believe in Ted Nolan; Toronto's addition of Jason Blake could be worth the one point they missed the playoffs by last season.

13: Philadelphia

Sorry, Philly, but one Danny Briere at $52 million is not enough. There's a caveat with this, though. If Martin Biron plays out of his mind (seriously, he'll have to channel Pelle Lindberg), and Jeff Carter finds his NHL-level offensive game, and the defensemen all took power skating lessons, the Flyers could wind up near the top of the charts... but those three ifs are just three of many.

14: Washington

15: Boston

I don't have a whole lot to say about these two squads. They're both coming together, and if Glen Hanlon lets the Caps play, they will be a lot of fun to watch (on a related note, the Caps play-by-play team last season was my favourite in the league). Claude Julien will get the Bruins whipped into shape, but I just don't trust any goaltending tandem that includes Manny Fernandez (he lost his starting job in Minnesota in 2004 and last season).

To the West...

1: San Jose

The new Ottawa. They get the nod at one simply because the Ducks just won't have the gas.

2: Detroit

Realignment, anyone? Of the Wings' four division rivals, roughly... none will make the playoffs this season. Anyone else want to have 32 games against non-playoff opponents guaranteed before the first puck is dropped?

3: Minnesota

You read that right. Full season of Marian Gaborik and Niklas Backstrom, more of the same from the rejuvenated Brian Rolston, more Pavol Demitra, and more of the same fantastic play the got last season, from a bunch of players you've never heard of, and this team easily wins the Northwest Division. If not for Detroit's JV opposition, the Wild would be the pick to finish second.

4/5: Anaheim/Colorado

No reason to think the Ducks are taking any further a step back than this is. And no reason to think the Ryan Smyth-boosted Avalanche don't get back to the top of the heap.

6/7/8: Dallas/Vancouver/Calgary

The Stars just refuse to go away, Vancouver has the best goalie in the world, and Calgary has the second-best. The way these teams play defense, and the level of goaltending they get will not allow them to all miss the playoffs.

9/10/11: Chicago/St. Louis/Nashville

For the record, St. Louis at 10 is a very generous pick. When I see the Hawks in Calgary on November 22, there's a good chance I'll be regretting this pick. They'll either be much better than ninth, or much worse. It all depends on which Nik Khabibulin shows up this year. The Blues are a mess on the blue line and in the blue paint, and Lee Stempniak's monster year can't save them. And the Predators are going to fall much worse than anyone thinks the Sabres will. It's one thing to lose Paul Kariya, Peter Forsberg, Tom Vokoun and Timmo Kimonen in the offseason, it's one thing to play a full season with ownership turmoil, to do both of the above, while handing the netminding reigns to Chris Mason... well...

12: Edmonton

The usual late-season push will be resurrected after last season's hiatus. Sadly, even Mathieu Garon taking over as the number one goalie can't save the Oilers this season.

13: Columbus

Somehow, the Kings and Coyotes are actually worse than the Blue Jackets.

14: Phoenix

Their triumvirate of goalies can't be worse than the Kings' tandem.

15: Los Angeles

Don't let that first game in England fool you. That was a 19-year old goalie, few of whom have any business playing in the NHL. And their other goalie has had a couple of rock-solid years in the American League, but let's ask former NHLer Steve Passmore what two rock-solid AHL seasons and a nickel will get you.

So there you have it. Who needs 82 games, when 1100 words can do the same?

We'll see you in April and see just how far off I was.

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