Playoff preview, day two

And the East.

Montreal Canadiens v Boston Bruins.
It’s hard to ignore the way the Canadiens have dominated the Bruins lately, winning the last 11 times they’ve met.
It’s hard to ignore the parallels between Carey Price’s emergence as a rookie, and Patrick Roy’s emergence as a rookie in 1986, including their 2007 and 1985 Calder Cup wins.
It’s hard to ignore the great season Alex Kovalev had in 2008, posting the second-highest points total of his career.
And of course, it’s hard to ignore the fact the Canadiens won the Eastern Conference.
But the hardest thing to ignore is the 2004 playoffs, when the Bruins were heavy favorites against Montreal in the first round, and pulled off a memorable collapse, losing a 3-1 series lead.
That series is a cautionary tale the Canadiens have to consider as they prepare to take on the Bruins.
Montreal’s biggest asset is their ability to play hockey any way their opponents want to. If the Bruins want to open up and run-n-gun (they don’t), Montreal can match them. If the B’s want to play defense, and clog up the neutral zone, Montreal can break through, and if the Bruins want to get rough and tumble, even the Kostitsyn brothers showed they’re prepared to stand up to Zdeno Chara.
Montreal in five.

Pittsburgh Penguins v Ottawa Senators.
Oddly enough, the Senators have already been pretty well written off heading into this series. Though for good reason.
The Sens really are a mess between the pipes, and their team defense has deteriorated. Chris Phillips has not been able to match the level he played at during last spring’s run to the Final. Wade Redden has slipped so far, the Sens are desperate to trade him, and the younger guys just don’t seem quite ready.
But Pittsburgh’s best defenseman is Sergei Gonchar, whose defensive-zone play isn’t exactly lauded. The Penguins’ concept of team defense is basically “Get the puck to Crosby.” These teams don’t play a whole lot of defense, as evidenced by the fact both teams were in the bottom-third of the league’s penalty killers.
So, as it should, this series will come down to Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley versus Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, and whichever power play gets hot.
Here’s the one caveat. If Pittsburgh gets outside of their regular game plan, if they try to play more conservatively and check the Senators, getting outside of their puck-control system, they’re done.
But I think Michel Therrien is too smart to do that.
Pittsburgh in six.

Washington Capitals v Philadelphia Flyers.
This one is just too tough to call. But here goes.
Alex Ovechkin cannot be stopped, and most nights, he cannot be contained. Do the Flyers assign Mike Richards to check Ovechkin throughout the series? My guess is yes, since Jim Dowd can‘t skate with Ovechkin, Scottie Upshall or Scott Hartnell will take too many penalties against Ovechkin, and no defensive pairing can do it alone. That takes Richards out of his role as Philly’s top scorer, even if they play strength-on-strength.
And even if they slow Ovechkin down, the Caps have shown since the trade deadline that guys like Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Semin, Sergei Fedorov, and the always-clutch Matt Cooke need to be contained.
The Capitals’ secondary scorers, though, aren’t as deep as Philly’s. Where the Caps make up for that, is in the emergence of Mike Green on defense. Coupled with Tom Poti, the Caps always have a blue liner on the ice to make a strong first pass, and they’ll be able to catch the Flyers’ defense on their heels often.
The biggest difference is likely in goal. Martin Biron had a really good season in Philly, and is a very good goalie. But Cristobal Huet is one season removed from an All-Star Game appearance (Biron is one season removed from being a backup), Huet is 3-0 in his last four starts against Philly, including a shutout (Biron has one win in his last three starts against Washington), and since a Tuesday night game in November in Montreal is more pressure-packed than this Friday’s game in Washington will be, Huet has an edge when it comes down to playing under fire. His 11-2 record, and 1.36 goals-against average and .936 save percentage down the stretch with the Caps is further evidence of that.
Capitals in six.

New Jersey Devils v New York Rangers.
Another tricky one, if only because the Devils won the only game between these two teams that really mattered in 2008. On the last day of the regular season, the Rangers had an opportunity to sweep the season series, and grab home-ice advantage in this series. The Blue Shirts won eight more games at Madison Square Garden this season than they won away from home.
But the Devils jumped out to an early lead, and while they ultimately needed extra time to win, win they did. And clinched home ice for this series.
Special teams is the most likely area that will give either team an edge. The Rangers had a better penalty-killing unit this season (sixth overall to New Jersey’s 13th) and a slightly better power play percentage (22nd to New Jersey’s 25th).
In their seven losses to the Rangers, the Devils scored just seven goals, and were shut out twice. And while four of the eight games went to overtime, the Devils lost three of them. It’s hard to bet against Martin Brodeur, but it’s hard to like a team that can’t score at any time, let alone in the clutch.
Despite their poor road record, the Rangers were 3-1 in the swamp, and should be able to win one more there in the playoffs.
Rangers in six.